Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 43-28 for -16.83 units and a ROI of -23.7%.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-245 vs OAK), FADE LA DODGERS (-192 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 73-83 (-43.36 units, ROI: -27.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 at KC), FADE BALTIMORE (-118 vs ATL)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (3-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in ATL-BAL (o/u at 9)
Trend: MIN is 17-2 (+13.00 units) vs. teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-245 vs. OAK)
Trend: BOS is 2-12 (-10.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-102 vs PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 Units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-205 vs. MIA), PLAY MINNESOTA (-245 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 at STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR MINNESOTA vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CHC-TB, CWS-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL (at KC), NY METS RL (vs MIA), MINNESOTA RL (vs OAK), LA DODGERS RL (vs TEX)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, MIAMI, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, TAMPA BAY, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 43-28 for -16.83 units and an ROI of -23.7%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-245 vs. OAK), FADE LA DODGERS (-192 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 149-181 record for -9.35 units (ROI -2.8%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 vs. PIT), MIAMI (+170 at NYM), WASHINGTON (+130 at DET), TAMPA BAY (+100 vs. CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 133-140 record, for +5.82 units (ROI 2.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 vs. PIT), WASHINGTON (+130 at DET), TAMPA BAY (+100 vs. CHC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 97-76 for +7.01 units (4.1% ROI) through Wednesday, 6/12.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-155 at KC), SEATTLE (-170 vs. CWS), BALTIMORE (-115 vs. ATL), WASHINGTON (+130 at DET)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1546-1433 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.73 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-162 at KC), MINNESOTA (-245 vs OAK), NY METS (-205 vs MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1423-1853 (43.4%) for -189.87 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-102 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-115 at STL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3097-2721 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -418.11 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-245 vs OAK), DETROIT (-162 vs WSH), BOSTON (+102 vs PHI), NY METS (-205 vs MIA), KANSAS CITY (+136 vs NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 86-74 outright (+2.15 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 at BAL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 155-142 run (+37.18 units, ROI: 12.5%).
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 at BAL), PLAY OAKLAND (+200 at MIN), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at SEA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 123-125 (+15.11 units, ROI: 6.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+130 vs NYY), PLAY OAKLAND (+200 at MIN), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 at SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 185-96 (+15.04 units, ROI: 5.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-118 vs ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 54-45 (+13.38 units, ROI: 13.5%) in their last 99 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+136 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 128-92 (+23.03 units, ROI: 10.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+136 at DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 73-83 (-43.36 units, ROI: -27.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 at KC), FADE BALTIMORE (-118 vs ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +170 (+30 diff), KANSAS CITY +130 (+16 diff), OAKLAND +200 (+17 diff), TAMPA BAY +100 (+16 diff), TEXAS +170 (25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -170 (+20 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) PITTSBURGH (32-35) at (952) ST LOUIS (32-34)
Trend: STL not great during the day (10-16, -9.92 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-105 vs PIT)
(953) MIAMI (23-44) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (29-37)
Trend: MIA trending Over vs. RH starters (26-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(955) NEW YORK-AL (49-21) at (956) KANSAS CITY (39-30)
Trend: NYY good versus AL Central/West (29-7, +16.73 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 at KC)
(957) OAKLAND (26-44) at (958) MINNESOTA (36-32)
Trend: OAK trending Under at night (12-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(959) CHICAGO-AL (17-52) at (960) SEATTLE (40-30)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (12-43, -25.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 at SEA)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)
(961) ATLANTA (35-30) at (962) BALTIMORE (45-22)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (3-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(965) CHICAGO-NL (33-35) at (966) TAMPA BAY (32-36)
Trend: TB better vs. LH starters (11-6, +2.89 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+100 vs CHC)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (46-21) at (968) BOSTON (34-34)
Trend: PHI good vs. RH starters (28-9, +13.96 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-118 at BOS)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (26-41) at (970) ARIZONA (32-36)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (18-35, -13.62 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+154 at AZ)
(971) TEXAS (32-35) at (972) LOS ANGELES-NL (42-27)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (28-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) PITTSBURGH (32-35) at (952) ST LOUIS (32-34)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 16-7 (+7.30 units) within line range of -180 or worse in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs PIT)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 11-2 (+8.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs PIT)
(953) MIAMI (23-44) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (29-37)
Trend: Luis Severino is 19-6 (+12.55 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-205 vs MIA)
(957) OAKLAND (26-44) at (958) MINNESOTA (36-32)
Trend: MIN is 17-2 (+13.00 units) vs teams with a winning pct of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-245 vs OAK)
(965) CHICAGO-NL (33-35) at (966) TAMPA BAY (32-36)
Trend: TB was 2-9 (-7.57 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley last season (1-3, -1.90 units this season)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+100 vs CHC)
Trend: TB was 1-4 (-3.30 units) vs. NL teams with Taj Bradley last season
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+100 vs CHC)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (46-21) at (968) BOSTON (34-34)
Trend: BOS is 2-12 (-10.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-102 vs PHI)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 6/14)
