Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 135-142 record, for +5.76 units (ROI 2.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-102 at CHC), MIAMI (+140 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (-108 at COL), CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 446-382 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.60 units, for a ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs. STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-213 (54.6%) for +40.03 units and an ROI of 8.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (-112 vs PIT)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (3-20, -18.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+140 at WSH)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (4-2, +1.92 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-16 (-17.82 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs CLE)
Trend: CIN is 6-16 (-10.92 units) vs divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 2-10 (-8.10 units) on the road and 0-9 (-9.92 units) in matchup vs. MIL or PIT specifically)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+124 at MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs STL), PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL), DETROIT (-105 at HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: STL-CHC, CIN-MIL, TEX-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: PHI-BAL, DET-HOU
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA RL (vs TB), MINNESOTA RL (vs OAK)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 45-29 for -16.75 units and an ROI of -22.6%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-218 vs. TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 151-184 record for -10.41 units (ROI -3.1%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-102 at CHC), MIAMI (+140 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (-108 at COL), CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 135-142 record, for +5.76 units (ROI 2.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-102 at CHC), MIAMI (+140 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (-108 at COL), CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 83-96 for -9.72 units. The three-game teams are 41-45 for -2.65 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (-110 vs. SD), FADE BOSTON (+142 vs. NYY)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 97-80 for +2.00 units (1.1% ROI) through Thursday 6/13.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-110 at NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1548-1434 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.39 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+142 vs. NYY), ARIZONA (-180 vs. CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1425-1854 (43.5%) for -189.09 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+140 at WSH), CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3102-2721 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.71 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-218 vs. TB), BOSTON (+142 vs. NYY), COLORADO (-112 vs. PIT), MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-180 vs. OAK), ARIZONA (-180 vs. CWS)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 876-761 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.03 units for backers and an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs. STL), NY METS (-110 vs. SD), SEATTLE (-142 vs. TEX)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 446-382 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.60 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-213 (54.6%) for +40.03 units and an ROI of 8.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (-112 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-143 run (+38.18 units, ROI: 12.7%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 125-126 (+16.51 units, ROI: 6.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +140 (+20 diff), PITTSBURGH -108 (+35 diff), DETROIT +100 (+30 diff), TAMPA BAY +180 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -125 (+16 diff), NY YANKEES -148 (+18 diff), MINNESOTA -180 (+19 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-HOU OVER 7 (+0.8), KC-LAD OVER 8 (+0.8), TEX-SEA OVER 7 (+0.7), SD-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CIN-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ST LOUIS (33-34) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (33-36)
Trend: STL trending Under during the DAY (8-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(903) MIAMI (23-45) at (904) WASHINGTON (32-36)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (3-20, -18.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+140 at WSH)
(905) SAN DIEGO (37-35) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (30-37)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (8-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(907) CINCINNATI (33-35) at (908) MILWAUKEE (40-28)
Trend: MIL good start in divisional play (16-8, +7.12 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-148 vs CIN)
(909) PITTSBURGH (32-36) at (910) COLORADO (24-44)
Trend: COL not good vs. NL Central/East (5-17, -8.46 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (-112 vs PIT)
(911) CLEVELAND (43-23) at (912) TORONTO (33-35)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (9-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (49-22) at (914) BOSTON (35-34)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (40-16, +20.20 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 at BOS)
(915) DETROIT (33-35) at (916) HOUSTON (31-38)
Trend: HOU not great vs. LH starters (7-14, -12.52 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-115 vs DET)
(917) OAKLAND (26-45) at (918) MINNESOTA (37-32)
Trend: OAK trending Under at night (12-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(919) TEXAS (33-35) at (920) SEATTLE (40-31)
Trend: SEA heavy Under at home (11-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(921) PHILADELPHIA (46-22) at (922) BALTIMORE (45-23)
Trend: BAL good vs. LH starters (14-5, +7.92 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-130 vs PHI)
(923) TAMPA BAY (33-36) at (924) ATLANTA (36-30)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. AL teams (3-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(925) CHICAGO-AL (18-52) at (926) ARIZONA (33-36)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (13-42, -23.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at AZ)
(927) KANSAS CITY (40-30) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (42-28)
Trend: LAD pretty good record vs. LH starters (18-7, +1.40 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 vs KC)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.
(901) ST LOUIS (33-34) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (33-36)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 0-8 (-9.25 units) vs MIL/CHC in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-102 at CHC)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 4-11 (-9.60 units) as a shorter road underdog between line range of -105 to +130 against NL teams in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-102 at CHC)
(903) MIAMI (23-45) at (904) WASHINGTON (32-36)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 3-9 (-7.73 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-166 vs MIA)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 6-10 (-2.28 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-166 vs MIA)
(905) SAN DIEGO (37-35) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (30-37)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 4-9 (-5.16 units) with line range of -114 or worse at home in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-110 vs SD)
(907) CINCINNATI (33-35) at (908) MILWAUKEE (40-28)
Trend: CIN is 6-16 (-10.92 units) vs. divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 2-10 (-8.10 units) on the road and 0-9 (-9.92 units) in matchup vs. MIL/PIT specifically)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+124 at MIL)
(911) CLEVELAND (43-23) at (912) TORONTO (33-35)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (4-2, +1.92 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+120 at TOR)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-16 (-17.82 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs. CLE)
(915) DETROIT (33-35) at (916) HOUSTON (31-38)
Trend: HOU is 1-7 (-7.75 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-115 vs DET)
(919) TEXAS (33-35) at (920) SEATTLE (40-31)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-29 (-15.12 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+120 at SEA)
(921) PHILADELPHIA (46-22) at (922) BALTIMORE (45-23)
Trend: PHI is 15-4 (+11.40 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL)
Trend: PHI is 8-2 (+8.55 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+110 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 12-4 (+7.63 units) against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish (including 6-0 (+6.00 units) at Home)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-130 vs PHI)
(929) LOS ANGELES-AL (26-42) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (34-35)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 5-11 (-8.35 units) on the road vs. NL West opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 at SF)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Letdown after series vs.. NY METS: 10-17 (37%) -6.03 units, ROI: -22.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 6/14 at Washington
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+140 at WSH)
