Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs LAA), ARIZONA (-180 vs CWS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 284-140 (67%) for +39.28 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 vs. TB)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-214 (54.5%) for +39.03 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-144 run (+37.18 units, ROI: 12.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (3-22, -20.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+100 at WSH)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 9-22 (-19.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+114 at HOU)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs. LAA), ARIZONA (-180 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (-135 vs PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 UNITS and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-258 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: PHI-BAL, CLE-TOR, SD-NYM
PLAY UNDER in: TEX-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs. DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA RL (GAME 2 vs OAK)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, WASHINGTON, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, TEXAS, ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA GAME 1
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 46-30 for -18.13 units and an ROI of -23.9%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs LAA), FADE LA DODGERS (-258 vs KC)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 59-23 for +2.13 units.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA GAME 2 -198 vs. OAK (*if they win Game 1 of DH, fade otherwise)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle has been 31-21 since opening day 2024, and it has lost -11.38 units, a season-long ROI of -21.9%.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-192 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 154-191 record for -13.99 units (ROI -4.1%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+110 at CHC), CLEVELAND (+110 at TOR), TEXAS (+120 at SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 138-146 record, for +5.18 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+110 at CHC), CLEVELAND (+110 at TOR), TEXAS (+120 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 84-98 for -10.72 units. The three-game teams are 42-45 for -1.65 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SEATTLE (-142 vs TEX), FADE LA ANGELS (+160 at SF)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (+110 vs SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 97-82 for -0.08 units (-0.01% ROI) through Saturday 6/15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-118 vs. TB), MINNESOTA GAME 1 (-180 vs. OAK)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 335-316 (51.5%) for +31.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-135 vs. DET), ARIZONA (-180 vs. CWS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1549-1435 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.39 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-120 vs. TB), COLORADO (+120 vs. PIT), DETROIT (+114 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1428-1858 (43.5%) for -189.32 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, TAMPA BAY, SAN DIEGO, CINCINNATI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3108-2727 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -415.15 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (GAME 1), CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, NY METS, HOUSTON, BOSTON, SEATTLE, COLORADO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 881-762 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.83 units for backers and a ROI of 1%.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CIN)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 284-140 (67%) for +39.28 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-120 vs TB)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 256-214 (54.5%) for +39.03 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 25-75 skid (-33.50 units, ROI -33.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 49-102 skid (-28.69 units, ROI: -19%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 60-127 (-51.78 units, ROI: -27.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 88-74 outright (+4.15 units, ROI: 2.6%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+100 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-144 run (+37.18 units, ROI: 12.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 125-127 (+15.51 units, ROI: 6.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+150 at MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +124 (+15 diff), KANSAS CITY +210 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -180 (+23 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-SF OVER 8 (+0.7), SD-NYM OVER 7 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-CHC UNDER 11 (-1.0), PIT-COL UNDER 12.5 (-1.0)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ST LOUIS (34-35) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (34-37)
Trend: STL trending Under during the DAY (8-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 11)
(903) MIAMI (23-47) at (904) WASHINGTON (34-36)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (3-22, -20.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+100 at WSH)
(907) CINCINNATI (34-36) at (908) MILWAUKEE (41-29)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (20-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(909) PITTSBURGH (33-37) at (910) COLORADO (25-45)
Trend: COL not great vs. NL Central/East (6-18, -8.08 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+120 vs PIT)
(911) CLEVELAND (44-24) at (912) TORONTO (34-36)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (9-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(913) OAKLAND (26-46) at (914) MINNESOTA (38-32) (DH Game #1)
Trend: OAK not great vs. AL Central/East (9-22, -6.76 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
(915) DETROIT (34-36) at (916) HOUSTON (32-39)
Trend: DET trending Over vs. RH starters (33-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(917) TEXAS (33-37) at (918) SEATTLE (42-31)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (12-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(919) NEW YORK-AL (50-23) at (920) BOSTON (36-35)
Trend: NYY great vs. RH starters (41-17, +19.40 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 at BOS)
(921) TAMPA BAY (33-38) at (922) ATLANTA (38-30)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (5-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(923) PHILADELPHIA (47-23) at (924) BALTIMORE (46-24)
Trend: PHI trending Over as ML underdog (8-0 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)
(927) CHICAGO-AL (19-53) at (928) ARIZONA (34-37)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (14-43, -22.68 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at AZ)
(929) KANSAS CITY (41-31) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (43-29)
Trend: LAD slight Under during the day (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(931) OAKLAND (26-46) at (932) MINNESOTA (38-32) (DH Game #2)
Trend: OAK trending Under at night (13-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(907) CINCINNATI (34-36) at (908) MILWAUKEE (41-29)
Trend: Frankie Montas is 0-6 (-7.30 units) vs. NL Central
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is 4-6 (-4.42 units) as a favorite of -125 or higher by starter Colin Rea
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CIN)
(911) CLEVELAND (44-24) at (912) TORONTO (34-36)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 2-8 (-9.25 units) vs. Cleveland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-130 vs CLE)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 23-5 (+14.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-130 vs CLE)
(913) OAKLAND (26-46) at (914) MINNESOTA (38-32) (DH Game #1)
Trend: OAK is 7-17 (-6.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at MIN GAME 1)
(915) DETROIT (34-36) at (916) HOUSTON (32-39)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 9-22 (-19.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+114 at HOU)
(917) TEXAS (33-37) at (918) SEATTLE (42-31)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 11-22 (-13.40 units) in daygame starts in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+120 at SEA)
(923) PHILADELPHIA (47-23) at (924) BALTIMORE (46-24)
Trend: PHI is 20-5 (+11.92 units) in last 25 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+114 at BAL)
(929) KANSAS CITY (41-31) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (43-29)
Trend: 7-1 (+8.75 units) vs. NL West teams with starter Brady Singer
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING KANSAS CITY (+210 at LAD)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 31-8 (+10.63 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in last five seasons (including 18-4 (+5.70 units) in HOME starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-258 vs KC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 6/17)
