Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 258-214 (54.7%) for +41.17 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs NYM)
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 2-9 (18.2%, -7.2 units) in last 11 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -65.5%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 at PIT)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 0-5 (-5.30 units) vs. Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)
Trend: Bryce Miller was 5-1 (+4.05 units) vs. AL Central last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+105 at CLE)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss and is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-205 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and a ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-170 vs. DET), NY METS (-110 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (-142 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BOS-TOR
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-112 vs. SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and a ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL (vs. SEA), WASHINGTON RL (vs. AZ), HOUSTON RL (at CWS), LA DODGERS RL (at COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, ATLANTA, NY METS, MILWAUKEE
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 60-23 for +3.13 units.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-205 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 157-194 record, for -13.89 units (ROI -4%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+124 at NYY), OAKLAND (+105 vs. KC), NY METS (-110 at TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 141-148 record, for +6.28 units (ROI 2.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at CHC), BALTIMORE (+124 at NYY), OAKLAND (+105 vs. KC), NY METS (-110 at TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 85-100 for -11.94 units. The three-game teams are 44-45 for +0.79 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+105 vs CIN)
3+ games – FADE SEATTLE (+105 at CLE)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 99-83 for +0.72 units (0.4% ROI) through Sunday 6/16.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-118 vs. AZ), BOSTON (-120 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-166 vs. TB), NY METS (-110 at TEX)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 91 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/17 and these teams are 45-46 for -7.07 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-125 at PIT), OAKLAND (+105 vs. KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-316 (51.6%) for +33.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs. NYM)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1552-1439 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.45 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-110 at TEX), LA DODGERS (-185 at COL), PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. SD), ARIZONA (-102 at WSH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1431-1865 (43.4%) for -193.72 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-125 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+124 at PHI), DETROIT (+142 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (-135 at OAK)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3119-2731 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -408.37 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, COLORADO, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, OAKLAND
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 258-214 (54.7%) for +41.17 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs NYM)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 49-104 skid (-30.69 units, ROI: -20.1%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+114 vs KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 60-129 (-53.78 units, ROI: -28.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+114 vs KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 88-75 outright (+3.15 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+120 at PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-147 run (+34.18 units, ROI: 11.2%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+130 vs STL), PLAY OAKLAND (+114 vs KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 125-130 (+12.51 units, ROI: 4.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+130 vs STL), PLAY SAN DIEGO (+120 at PHI), PLAY OAKLAND (+114 vs KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 185-97 (+13.89 units, ROI: 4.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 55-46 (+13.58 units, ROI: 13.4%) in their last 101 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-110 at TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 169-108 in their last 277 tries (+27.85 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +120 (+19 diff), TORONTO +102 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -180 (+25 diff), TEXAS -105 (+16 diff), MILWAUKEE -142 (+33 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-OAK OVER 8 (+0.7), TB-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), HOU-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CINCINNATI (34-38) at (902) PITTSBURGH (35-37)
Trend: PIT trending Over vs. LH starters (17-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(905) SAN DIEGO (37-39) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (48-24)
Trend: PHI great vs. RH starters (30-12, +13.08 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)
(907) ARIZONA (35-37) at (908) WASHINGTON (35-36)
Trend: AZ not as good at night (21-28, -10.93 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-102 at WSH)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (36-37) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (34-39)
Trend: SF not as good at night (16-25, -13.19 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at CHC)
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-29) at (912) COLORADO (25-47)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (19-7, +2.40 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)
(913) SEATTLE (43-31) at (914) CLEVELAND (44-25)
Trend: CLE good so far vs. AL East/West (23-12, +10.72 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-125 vs SEA)
(915) BALTIMORE (47-24) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (50-24)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (41-18, +17.98 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs BAL)
(917) BOSTON (38-35) at (918) TORONTO (35-37)
Trend: TOR bad as home underdog (1-6 record)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+100 vs BOS)
(919) TAMPA BAY (34-38) at (920) MINNESOTA (40-32)
Trend: TB not great bet vs. RH starters (22-31, -16.62 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at MIN)
(921) HOUSTON (33-39) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (19-54)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(923) KANSAS CITY (41-32) at (924) OAKLAND (26-48)
Trend: OAK not good vs. AL Central/East (9-24, -8.76 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+105 vs KC)
(925) DETROIT (34-38) at (926) ATLANTA (39-31)
Trend: DET trending Over vs. RH starters (33-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(927) NEW YORK-NL (34-37) at (928) TEXAS (33-39)
Trend: TEX trending Under in interleague play (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(929) MILWAUKEE (42-30) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-43)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (21-36, -10.98 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 vs MIL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) CINCINNATI (34-38) at (902) PITTSBURGH (35-37)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 8-3 (+5.05 units) as a home night starter in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+105 vs CIN)
(905) SAN DIEGO (37-39) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (48-24)
Trend: Aaron Nola is just 1-4 (-3.95 units) vs San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs SD)
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-29) at (912) COLORADO (25-47)
Trend: Walker Buehler has dominated lesser competition, going 20-3 (+12.70 units) against teams with a < 40% win pct since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 33-12 (+8.80 units) against Divisional competition since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-180 at COL)
(913) SEATTLE (43-31) at (914) CLEVELAND (44-25)
Trend: Bryce Miller was 5-1 (+4.05 units) vs. AL Central last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+105 at CLE)
(917) BOSTON (38-35) at (918) TORONTO (35-37)
Trend: BOS is 3-12 (-9.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-120 at TOR)
(919) TAMPA BAY (34-38) at (920) MINNESOTA (40-32)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 0-5 (-5.30 units) vs Tampa Bay in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)
(927) NEW YORK-NL (34-37) at (928) TEXAS (33-39)
Trend: Luis Severino is 20-6 (+13.55 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-110 at TEX)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 2-9 (18.2%, -7.2 units) in last 11 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -65.5%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 at PIT)
Series #22: Detroit at Atlanta, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 (85.7%, +5 units) in the last seven games between Detroit and Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is 71.4%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 14-14 (50%) -11.14 units, ROI: -39.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 6/18 vs Baltimore
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs BAL)
