The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 142-150 record, for +5.36 units (ROI 1.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at CHC), WASHINGTON (+136 vs. AZ), BALTIMORE (+142 at NYY), BOSTON (+114 at TOR), NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #2
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 56-46 (+14.58 units, ROI: 14.3%) in their last 102 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Trend: TB not a solid bet vs. RH starters (22-32, -17.62 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at MIN)

Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-4, -3.65 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs. SF), CLEVELAND (-142 vs. SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): WATCH FOR LA DODGERS (*-198 currently)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-125 vs. DET), NY METS (-110 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (-170 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BOS-TOR, KC-OAK
PLAY UNDER in: DET-ATL, TB-MIN, HOU-CWS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs SD), LA DODGERS RL (at COL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, ATLANTA, NY METS, MILWAUKEE

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 61-23 for +4.13 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-198 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 158-196 record for -14.81 units (ROI -4.2%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at CHC), WASHINGTON (+136 vs. AZ), BALTIMORE (+142 at NYY), BOSTON (+114 at TOR), OAKLAND (+145 vs KC), NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 142-150 record, for +5.36 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at CHC), WASHINGTON (+136 vs. AZ), BALTIMORE (+142 at NYY), BOSTON (+114 at TOR), NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 85-101 for -12.94 units. The three-game teams are 45-45 for +1.93 units. The two-game system is headed in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (-162 at WSH)3+ games – FADE SEATTLE (+120 at CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 102-84 for +2.47 units (1.3% ROI) through Tuesday 6/18.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-198 at COL), BOSTON (+114 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-166 vs. TB), NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 93 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/18 and these teams are 47-46 for -4.97 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-142 vs SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1556-1439 (52%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -162.40 units. This represents an ROI of -5.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-198 at COL), MIAMI (+145 vs. STL), COLORADO (+164 vs. LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1432-1868 (43.4%) for -196.02 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT), BALTIMORE (+142 at NYY), DETROIT (+110 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at CHC), HOUSTON (-125 at CWS)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3125-2734 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -405.03 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, COLORADO, OAKLAND

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 882-763 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.41 units for backers and an ROI of 1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+140 vs. AZ), PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 vs. HOU)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 447-383 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.40 units, for a ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 vs. HOU)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 127-131 (+13.75 units, ROI: 5.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+150 at PHI)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 186-97 (+14.89 units, ROI: 5.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 56-46 (+14.58 units, ROI: 14.3%) in their last 102 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-110 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 170-108 in their last 278 tries (+28.85 units, ROI: 10.4%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-166 vs TB)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +150 (+15 diff), SAN DIEGO +150 (+17 diff), SEATTLE +120 (+19 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -198 (+30 diff), NY YANKEES -175 (+16 diff), HOUSTON -122 (+16 diff), KANSAS CITY -175 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-COL OVER 10 (+1.2), TB-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.0), KC-OAK OVER 7.5 (+1.0), BOS-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) CINCINNATI (35-38) at (952) PITTSBURGH (35-38)
Trend: PIT not as good as home favorite (7-11 record)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-122 vs. CIN)

(953) ST LOUIS (36-36) at (954) MIAMI (24-49)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (26-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(955) SAN DIEGO (37-40) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (49-24)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: PHI good at home (29-9, +15.73 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. SD)

(957) SAN FRANCISCO (36-38) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (35-39)
Trend: SF good during the day (20-12, +7.60 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at CHC)

(963) SEATTLE (44-31) at (964) CLEVELAND (44-26)
Trend: CLE good so far vs. AL East/West (23-13, +9.37 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs. SEA)

(965) BALTIMORE (47-25) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (51-24)
Trend: NYY good at night (35-16, +12.29 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-170 vs. BAL)

(967) BOSTON (39-35) at (968) TORONTO (35-38)
Trend: TOR trending Under at night (14-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(969) TAMPA BAY (34-39) at (970) MINNESOTA (41-32)
Trend: TB not great bet vs. RH starters (22-32, -17.62 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at MIN)

(971) HOUSTON (33-40) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (20-54)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (11-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(973) KANSAS CITY (41-33) at (974) OAKLAND (27-48)
Trend: OAK not good vs. AL Central/East (10-24, -7.66 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+145 vs. KC)

(975) DETROIT (34-39) at (976) ATLANTA (40-31)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (6-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(977) NEW YORK-NL (35-37) at (978) TEXAS (33-40)
Trend: NYM slight Over vs. LH starters (13-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(979) MILWAUKEE (43-30) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-44)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (21-37, -11.98 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+142 vs. MIL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) CINCINNATI (35-38) at (952) PITTSBURGH (35-38)
Trend: CIN is 7-16 (-9.50 units) vs. divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 3-10 (-6.68 units) on the road and 1-9 (-8.50 units) in matchups vs. PIT/MIL specifically)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT)

(955) SAN DIEGO (37-40) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (49-24)
Trend: PHI is 5-8 (-9.68 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs SD)

(959) ARIZONA (36-37) at (960) WASHINGTON (35-37)
Trend: AZ was 6-3 (+3.49 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt last season (4-1, +2.90 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-166 at WSH)

(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (46-29) at (962) COLORADO (25-48)
Trend: LAD was 4-0 (+4.05 units) in road divisional starts by Bobby Miller last season
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-198 at COL)

(963) SEATTLE (44-31) at (964) CLEVELAND (44-26)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee last year (4-1, +2.95 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently)

(967) BOSTON (39-35) at (968) TORONTO (35-38)
Trend: BOS is 8-13 (-3.74 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+114 at TOR)

Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-4, -3.65 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs BOS)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-17 (-19.37 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs BOS)

(969) TAMPA BAY (34-39) at (970) MINNESOTA (41-32)
Trend: TB was 2-9 (-7.57 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley last season (2-3, -0.90 units this season)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (+140 at MIN)

Trend: MIN is 10-5 (+3.54 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Joe Ryan in L3 seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-166 vs. TB)

(971) HOUSTON (33-40) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (20-54)
Trend: HOU is 2-7 (-6.75 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-125 at CWS)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 3-9 (25%, -6.20 units) in the last 12 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -51.7%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+102 at PIT)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 6/21)

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