The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (-205 vs LAA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 81-68 for +1.12 units (0.8% ROI) through Saturday 6/1.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. STL), BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (-310 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-142 vs. SF)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 283-137 (67.4%) for +42.79 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): BALTIMORE (-142 vs TB), HOUSTON (-142 vs MIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 70-80 (-43.14 units, ROI: -28.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-310 vs CWS)

Trend: Lance Lynn is 8-21 (-11.35 units) on the road at night as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) in last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+120 at PHI)

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-3 (+13.90 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons

Trend: Detroit is 2-12 (14.3%, -9.33 units) in the last14 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -66.6%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+124 at BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (-205 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): HOUSTON (-142 vs MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-250 vs OAK), MILWAUKEE (-310 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-270 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: LAA-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: CIN-CHC

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the BETS was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA RL (vs. OAK), MILWAUKEE RL (vs. CWS), LA DODGERS RL (vs. COL), SEATTLE RL (vs. LAA), PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. STL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trends systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/26, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, TORONTO, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 37-25 for -16.86 units and an ROI of -27.2%. After last week’s 4-9 (-9.82 unit) performance, the ROI on this system has dropped 55% over the past 54 days!
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE (-205 vs LAA), FADE ATLANTA (-250 vs OAK)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative but improving at 51-22 for -3.67 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-270 vs COL), PLAY MILWAUKEE (-310 vs CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 27-18 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -12.3 units, a season long ROI of -27.3%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-270 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 138-156 record for +3.44 units (ROI 1.2%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 at CHC), MIAMI (+110 vs. TEX), SAN DIEGO (+114 at KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 123-118 record, for +17.21 units (ROI 7.1%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 at CHC), MIAMI (+110 v.s TEX), SAN DIEGO (+114 at KC)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 81-68 for +1.12 units (0.8% ROI) through Saturday 6/1.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. STL), BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (-310 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-142 vs. SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 330-309 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-170 vs PIT), MIAMI (+110 vs TEX)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1529-1419 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.06 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 vs. TB), SEATTLE (-205 vs. LAA), ARIZONA (-112 at NYM), OAKLAND (+205 at ATL), ATLANTA (-250 vs. OAK)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1405-1835 (43.4%) for -188.89 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+120 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+124 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+120 at PHI), LA ANGELS (+170 at SEA), COLORADO (+220 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3077-2687 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.82 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, NY METS, BOSTON, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 283-137 (67.4%) for +42.79 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): BALTIMORE (-142 vs TB), HOUSTON (-142 vs MIN)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 254-211 (54.6%) for +40.03 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-250 vs OAK)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 25-72 skid (-30.50 units, ROI -31.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+250 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-98 skid (-25.69 units, ROI: -17.6%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+250 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-123 (-48.78 units, ROI: -26.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+250 at MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 152-137 run (+39.00 units, ROI: 13.5%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+170 at SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 70-80 (-43.14 units, ROI: -28.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (-310 vs CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +105 (+16 diff), COLORADO +220 (+25 diff), MINNESOTA +130 (+36 diff), OAKLAND +205 (+30 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +250 (+25 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +120 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-KC OVER 8 (+0.9), WSH-CLE OVER 8 (+0.7), AZ-NYM OVER 8 (+0.6), LAA-SEA OVER 7 (+0.6), MIN-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.8)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ST LOUIS (27-29) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (41-18)
Trend: PHI dominant vs. RH starters (27-7, +15.63 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs STL)

(903) ARIZONA (26-32) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (24-34)
Trend: AZ not good vs. LH starters (7-14, -10.39 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-112 at NYM)

(905) CINCINNATI (25-33) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (29-30)
Trend: CHC not good so far vs. LH starters (4-7, -3.57 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs CIN)

(907) COLORADO (21-36) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (37-23)
Trend: LAD slight Under during the day (6-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(909) MINNESOTA (32-26) at (910) HOUSTON (26-33)
Trend: HOU trending Under vs. RH starters (14-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(911) TAMPA BAY (28-31) at (912) BALTIMORE (37-19)
Trend: BAL good start vs. divisional teams (11-3, +4.90 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 vs TB)

(913) DETROIT (28-30) at (914) BOSTON (30-29)
Trend: BOS better during the DAY (14-8, +5.46 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-148 vs DET)

(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-37) at (916) SEATTLE (33-27)
Trend: LAA horrible vs. RH starters (13-33, -18.00 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+170 at SEA)

(917) OAKLAND (24-36) at (918) ATLANTA (32-24)
Trend: ATL heavy Under vs. AL teams (2-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(919) PITTSBURGH (27-31) at (920) TORONTO (27-30)
Trend: PIT hasn’t been great vs. AL teams this year (6-12, -8.33 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+142 at TOR)

(921) TEXAS (28-30) at (922) MIAMI (21-38)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (21-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(923) WASHINGTON (26-31) at (924) CLEVELAND (39-19)
Trend: CLE good during the day (16-4, +12.98 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs WSH)

(925) CHICAGO-AL (15-44) at (926) MILWAUKEE (35-23)
Trend: MIL good during the day (17-9, +8.39 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-310 vs CWS)

(927) SAN DIEGO (32-29) at (928) KANSAS CITY (35-25)
Trend: SD slight Over during the day (15-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(929) NEW YORK-AL (41-19) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (29-30)
Trend: SF not great vs. LH starters (5-10, -6.81 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+120 vs NYY)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ST LOUIS (27-29) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (41-18)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 8-21 (-11.35 units) on the road at night as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) in last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+120 at PHI)

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-3 (+13.90 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs STL)

(903) ARIZONA (26-32) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (24-34)
Trend: AZ was 6-3 (+3.49 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt last season (3-1, +1.90 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-112 at NYM)

(905) CINCINNATI (25-33) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (29-30)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 7-9 (-4.13 units) vs. teams with a losing record
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+105 at CHC)

(907) COLORADO (21-36) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (37-23)
Trend: COL was 7-4 (+5.35 units) during the day last season with starter Austin Gomber (2-2, +1.35 units this season)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+220 at LAD)

Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-14 (-8.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+220 at LAD)

(919) PITTSBURGH (27-31) at (920) TORONTO (27-30)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 24-6 (+14.92 units) in day games vs. teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-170 vs PIT)

(921) TEXAS (28-30) at (922) MIAMI (21-38)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 21-6 (+12.02 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-130 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 8-28 (-17.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 vs TEX)

(925) CHICAGO-AL (15-44) at (926) MILWAUKEE (35-23)
Trend: MIL is 9-5 (+2.12 units) vs CWS/CHC with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-310 vs CWS)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: NY Mets are 21-5 (80.8%, +15.40 units) in the last 26 games vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 59.2%.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-108 vs AZ)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Thu 5/30-Sun 6/2
Trend: Detroit is 2-12 (14.3%, -9.33 units) in the last 14 games vs. Boston
– The ROI on this trend is -66.6%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+124 at BOS)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one 6/6)

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