The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 85-102 for -14.69 units. The three-game teams are 45-46 for +0.93 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs NYM), FADE SAN DIEGO (-155 vs MIL), FADE MIAMI (+140 vs SEA), FADE BALTIMORE (-162 at HOU)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 285-141 (66.9%) for +39.08 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs MIL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 159-147 run (+36.42 units, ROI: 11.9%).
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-175 vs CWS)

Trend: NY METS are 5-9 (35.7%, -11.08 units) in their last 14 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -79.1%
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 at CHC)

Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-4 (+12.48 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 vs AZ)

Trend: BAL is 15-2 (+12.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at HOU)

Strategies using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 vs LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs. TB), NY YANKEES (-108 vs. ATL), SEATTLE (-166 at MIA), BOSTON (-108 at CIN), LA DODGERS (-192 vs. LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SEA-MIA, MIL-SD
PLAY UNDER in: CWS-DET

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL (vs. ATL), BALTIMORE RL (at HOU), LA DODGERS RL (vs. LAA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: NY METS, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 63-24 for +4.15 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 vs LAA)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 34-21 since opening day 2024 and has lost -8.38 units, a season long ROI of -15.2%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 vs LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 164-200 record for -11.32 units (ROI -3.1%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+120 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+130 at SD), TAMPA BAY (+100 at PIT), BOSTON (-108 at CIN), HOUSTON (+136 vs. BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 146-154 record for +5.86 units (ROI 2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+120 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+130 at SD), TAMPA BAY (+100 at PIT), BOSTON (-108 at CIN), HOUSTON (+136 vs. BAL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 85-102 for -14.69 units. The three-game teams are 45-46 for +0.93 units. The two-game system is headed in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. NYM), FADE SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. MIL), FADE MIAMI (+140 vs. SEA), FADE BALTIMORE (-162 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 103-87 for -1.21 units (-0.6% ROI) through Wednesday, 6/19.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-112 at NYY), BOSTON (-108 at CIN)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 94 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/19, and these teams are 48-46 for -3.97 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-175 vs CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1558-1440 (52%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -161.44 units. This represents an ROI of -5.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-162 at HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1436-1873 (43.4%) for -196.78 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-112 at COL), LA ANGELS (+160 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3133-2738 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.88 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 884-764 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +17.84 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs. TB), CINCINNATI (-115 vs. BOS)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 447-384 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.38 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-175 vs. CWS), CINCINNATI (-115 vs. BOS)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 285-141 (66.9%) for +39.08 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. MIL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 258-215 (54.5%) for +40.17 units and an ROI of 8.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-108 vs. ATL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 159-147 run (+36.42 units, ROI: 11.9%).
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-175 vs CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +130 (+18 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON -112 (+23 diff), DETROIT -175 (+19 diff), CLEVELAND -120 (+17 diff), MINNESOTA -166 (+32 diff), SEATTLE -166 (+18 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-PHI OVER 9.5 (+0.5), KC-TEX OVER 8 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (35-38) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (36-39)
Trend: NYM heavy Over on the road (21-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(953) ARIZONA (37-38) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (49-25)
Trend: PHI good at home (29-10, +13.88 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 vs AZ)

(957) MILWAUKEE (44-31) at (958) SAN DIEGO (39-40)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (33-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(959) CHICAGO-AL (20-56) at (960) DETROIT (34-40)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (7-31, -19.87 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 at DET)

(961) TORONTO (35-39) at (962) CLEVELAND (46-26)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (10-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(963) KANSAS CITY (42-34) at (964) TEXAS (34-40)
Trend: TEX trending Under at night (16-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(967) MINNESOTA (41-34) at (968) OAKLAND (28-49)
Trend: OAK not good vs. RH starters (20-39, -12.28 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs MIN)

(969) TAMPA BAY (36-39) at (970) PITTSBURGH (36-38)
Trend: PIT worse start in interleague play (8-14, -8.38 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-120 vs TB)

(971) ATLANTA (41-31) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (51-26)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (6-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(973) SEATTLE (44-33) at (974) MIAMI (25-49)
Trend: SEA trending Under vs. NL teams (5-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(975) BOSTON (40-35) at (976) CINCINNATI (35-39)
Trend: BOS not as good vs. LH starters (9-12, -4.89 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-108 at CIN)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) ARIZONA (37-38) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (49-25)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-4 (+12.48 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 vs AZ)

(957) MILWAUKEE (44-31) at (958) SAN DIEGO (39-40)
Trend: MIL has been good in the -120 to +135 line range with starter Colin Rea (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-1, +3.54 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+130 at SD)

(959) CHICAGO-AL (20-56) at (960) DETROIT (34-40)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 24-8 (+7.95 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-175 vs CWS)

(965) BALTIMORE (49-25) at (966) HOUSTON (35-40)
Trend: BAL is 15-2 (+12.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at HOU)

(973) SEATTLE (44-33) at (974) MIAMI (25-49)
Trend: SEA is 13-5 (+4.68 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at MIA)

Trend: MIA is 8-31 (-20.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+140 vs SEA)

(977) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-45) at (978) LOS ANGELES-NL (47-30)
Trend: LAA is 3-13 (-11.23 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+160 at LAD)

Series #7: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, Fri 6/21-Sun 6/23
Trend: NY METS are 5-9 (35.7%, -11.08 units) in their last 14 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -79.1%
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 at CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

CINCINNATI     
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 14-10 (58.3%) 4.89 units, ROI: 20.4% 
Next betting opportunity: Friday 6/21 vs. Boston
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-115 vs. BOS)

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