Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 258-216 (54.4%) for +39.09 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+130 vs. BAL), PITTSBURGH (-110 vs. TB), COLORADO (-105 vs. WSH)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 51-30 for -13.13 units and an ROI of -16.2%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. AZ), FADE LA DODGERS (-380 vs. LAA)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (10-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: STL heavy Under during the day (8-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 9-23 (-20.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-162 vs CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-110 vs SF), TAMPA BAY (-110 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (-110 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-380 vs. LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-110 vs. TB), SEATTLE (-170 at MIA), BOSTON (-125 at CIN), NY YANKEES (-142 vs. ATL), LA DODGERS (-380 vs. LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SEA-MIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. AZ), LA DODGERS RL (vs. LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE, BOSTON, ATLANTA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 51-30 for -13.13 units and a ROI of -16.2%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. AZ), FADE LA DODGERS (-380 vs. LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 166-201 record for -9.72 units (ROI -2.6%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-110 vs. SF), NY METS (-108 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (-110 at SD), HOUSTON (+130 vs. BAL), TAMPA BAY (-110 at PIT), ATLANTA (+120 at NYY)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 148-155 record, for +7.46 units (ROI 2.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-110 vs. SF), NY METS (-108 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (-110 at SD), HOUSTON (+130 vs. BAL), TAMPA BAY (-110 at PIT), ATLANTA (+120 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 87-104 for -15.34 units. The 3-game teams are 45-46 for +0.93 units. The two-game system is headed in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (+195 at PHI)
3-games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-110 vs. MIL), FADE MIAMI (+142 vs. SEA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 104-88 for -1.36 units (-0.7% ROI) through Friday 6/21.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (+130 vs. BAL), TAMPA BAY (-110 at PIT), ATLANTA (+120 at NYY)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 95 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/21, and these teams are 49-46 for -2.97 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 at OAK), SEATTLE (-170 at MIA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-317 (51.5%) for +32.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-112 vs. NYM), PITTSBURGH (-110 vs. TB), NY YANKEES (-142 vs. ATL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1558-1441 (52%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -162.99 units. This represents an ROI of -5.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, WASHINGTON, SAN DIEGO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1438-1873 (43.4%) for -194.33 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO, SEATTLE, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3137-2741 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.96 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, TEXAS, HOUSTON, COLORADO, SAN DIEGO, OAKLAND
Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 885-765 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +17.84 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-142 vs ATL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 258-216 (54.4%) for +39.09 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+130 vs. BAL), PITTSBURGH (-110 vs. TB), COLORADO (-105 vs. WSH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 88-75 outright (+3.15 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+124 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 128-131 (+15.29 units, ROI: 5.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+124 at CLE)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +200 (+26 diff), KANSAS CITY +120 (+24 diff), HOUSTON +130 (+16 diff), LA ANGELS +300 (underpriced in any way)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -162 (+32 diff), MINNESOTA -162 (+22 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-CLE UNDER 9 (-1.3), SF-STL UNDER 9 (-0.9), AZ-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.9), TB-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), BOS-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), LAA-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), SEA-MIA UNDER 7 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (36-40) at (902) ST LOUIS (37-37)
Trend: STL heavy Under during the day (8-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(903) NEW YORK-NL (36-38) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (36-40)
Trend: NYM heavy Over on the road (22-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11.5)
(905) ARIZONA (38-38) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (49-26)
Trend: PHI good at home (29-11, +12.46 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs AZ)
(907) MILWAUKEE (44-32) at (908) SAN DIEGO (40-40)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (34-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (20-57) at (912) DETROIT (35-40)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (7-32, -20.87 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 at DET)
(913) KANSAS CITY (42-35) at (914) TEXAS (35-40)
Trend: TEX trending Under vs. AL Central/East (6-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(915) MINNESOTA (41-35) at (916) OAKLAND (29-49)
Trend: OAK not good vs. RH starters (21-39, -10.98 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs MIN)
(917) TORONTO (35-40) at (918) CLEVELAND (47-26)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (10-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(919) BALTIMORE (49-26) at (920) HOUSTON (36-40)
Trend: BAL good during the day (23-10, +10.02 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-155 at HOU)
(921) TAMPA BAY (37-39) at (922) PITTSBURGH (36-39)
Trend: PIT worse start in interleague play (8-15, -9.38 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-110 vs TB)
(923) SEATTLE (44-34) at (924) MIAMI (26-49)
Trend: SEA trending Under vs. NL teams (5-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(925) BOSTON (40-36) at (926) CINCINNATI (36-39)
Trend: CIN more Under at home (14-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(927) ATLANTA (42-31) at (928) NEW YORK-AL (51-27)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (7-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(929) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-45) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (47-31)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (22-38, -11.48 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+300 at LAD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) ARIZONA (38-38) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (49-26)
Trend: PHI is 20-6 (+10.92 units) in last 26 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. AZ)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (20-57) at (912) DETROIT (35-40)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 9-23 (-20.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-162 vs. CWS)
(913) KANSAS CITY (42-35) at (914) TEXAS (35-40)
Trend: TEX is 8-3 (+3.75 units) in home day games with Jon Gray in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs. KC)
(915) MINNESOTA (41-35) at (916) OAKLAND (29-49)
Trend: OAK is 7-18 (-7.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs MIN)
(917) TORONTO (35-40) at (918) CLEVELAND (47-26)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 3-8 (-8.25 units) vs. Cleveland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+124 at CLE)
(921) TAMPA BAY (37-39) at (922) PITTSBURGH (36-39)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 15-4 (+10.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range (including 8-1 (+6.70 units) last season with TB)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-110 at PIT)
(927) ATLANTA (42-31) at (928) NEW YORK-AL (51-27)
Trend: Marcus Stroman is 7-3 (+3.60 units) in the last 10 home day game starts
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-142 vs. ATL)
(929) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-45) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (47-31)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 32-8 (+11.63 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 19-4 (+6.70 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-380 vs. LAA)
Top Head-To-head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #7: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, Fri 6/21-Sun 6/23
Trend: NY METS are 6-9 (40%, -9.78 units) in their last 15 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -65.2%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-108 at CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 6/24)
