The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 286-141 (67%) for +40.08 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (-118 vs. TOR), ST LOUIS (-125 vs. SF)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 34-21 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -8.38 units, a season-long ROI of -15.2%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs AZ)

Trend: NY METS are 6-10 (37.5%, -11.03 units) in their last 16 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -68.9%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 at CHC)

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-5 (-6.68 units) vs. Cleveland in his career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-102 at CLE)

Trend: NYY is 13-2 (+10.65 units) at home in day games with starter Nestor Cortes in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-112 vs. ATL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors are looking for, but it is not a loss and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NY METS (-105 at CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-112 vs. ATL), PITTSBURGH (-166 vs. TB), BOSTON (+136 at CIN), SEATTLE (-170 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SEA-MIA, MIL-SD
PLAY UNDER in: TB-PIT, SF-STL

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, NY METS, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, SEATTLE

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 53-30 for -11.13 units and an ROI of -13.4%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs AZ)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 34-21 since opening day 2024 and has lost -8.38 units, a season-long ROI of -15.2%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 167-204 record for -11.62 units (ROI -3.1%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-105 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD), ATLANTA (-108 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (+140 at PIT), BOSTON (+136 at CIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 149-158 record for +5.56 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-105 at CHC), MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD), ATLANTA (-108 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (+140 at PIT), BOSTON (+136 at CIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 87-105 for -16.34 units. The three-game teams are 46-47 for +0.93 units. The two-game system is headed in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-135 vs. MIL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 106-90 for -1.21 units (-0.6% ROI) through Saturday 6/22.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-118 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-125 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-155 vs. KC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 97 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/22 and these teams are 51-46 for -0.97 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 340-317 (51.8%) for +35.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+150 vs. MIN), MIAMI (+142 vs, SEA)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1560-1445 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.56 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-125 vs. SF), PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (-180 at OAK), SEATTLE (-170 at MIA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1441-1875 (43.5%) for -192.91 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-105 at CHC), ARIZONA (+170 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+130 at TEX), BALTIMORE (+105 at HOU)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3143-2743 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -396.78 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, COLORADO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 886-765 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +18.84 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+142 vs. SEA), OAKLAND (+150 vs. MIN)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 286-141 (67%) for +40.08 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (-118 vs. TOR), ST LOUIS (-125 vs. SF)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 261-216 (54.7%) for +42.29 units and an ROI of 8.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+150 vs. MIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 88-76 outright (+2.15 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+105 at STL), PLAY TORONTO (-102 at CLE)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 128-132 (+14.29 units, ROI: 5.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+105 at STL), PLAY TORONTO (-102 at CLE)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 73-85 (-46.17 units, ROI: -29.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-118 vs. TOR)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +170 (+25 diff), BALTIMORE +105 (+26 diff), KANSAS CITY +130 (+27 diff), BOSTON +136 (+30 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON -125 (+30 diff), DETROIT -185 (+16 diff), CLEVELAND -118 (+22 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-COL OVER 11 (+0.7), MIL-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.7), BAL-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.6), KC-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), ATL-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.6), BOS-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), NYM-CHC UNDER 8 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(953) SAN FRANCISCO (36-41) at (954) ST LOUIS (38-37)
Trend: SF pretty good during the day (20-14, +5.52 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+105 at STL)

(955) NEW YORK-NL (36-39) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (37-40)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (22-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(959) MILWAUKEE (44-33) at (960) SAN DIEGO (41-40)
Trend: MIL better during the day (22-12, +10.17 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 at SD)

(963) TORONTO (35-41) at (964) CLEVELAND (48-26)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (10-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(967) KANSAS CITY (42-36) at (968) TEXAS (36-40)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (11-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(971) ATLANTA (42-32) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (52-27)
Trend: ATL better vs. AL teams (21-11, +4.06 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-108 at NYY)

(975) BOSTON (41-36) at (976) CINCINNATI (36-40)
Trend: BOS pretty good on the road (23-16, +7.65 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+136 at CIN)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) NEW YORK-NL (36-39) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (37-40)
Trend: Luis Severino is 4-13 (-7.85 units) as an underdog in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 at CHC)

Trend: Luis Severino is 21-6 (+14.55 units) against teams with a losing record in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-105 at CHC)

(963) TORONTO (35-41) at (964) CLEVELAND (48-26)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-5 (-6.68 units) vs. Cleveland in his career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-102 at CLE)

(967) KANSAS CITY (42-36) at (968) TEXAS (36-40)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 18-4 (+10.50 units) in the last 22 DAY games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-155 vs KC)

(971) ATLANTA (42-32) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (52-27)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (6-3, +1.41 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-108 at NYY)

Trend: NYY is 13-2 (+10.65 units) at home in day games with starter Nestor Cortes in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-112 vs ATL)

(975) BOSTON (41-36) at (976) CINCINNATI (36-40)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 12-6 (+8.31 units) vs. winning teams
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-162 vs BOS)

Trend: CIN is 16-7 (+9.56 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-162 vs BOS)

Series #7: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, Fri 6/21-Sun 6/23
Trend: NY METS are 6-10 (37.5%, -11.03 units) in their last 16 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -68.9%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-105 at CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 6/24)

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