Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-142 vs. TOR), KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 154-158 record for +11.54 units (ROI 3.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at SF), CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL), OAKLAND (+114 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-46 (-6.01 units, ROI: -9%) in their last 67 tries.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+150 at MIL)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (4-1, +2.95 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
Chicago White Sox letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 9-19 (32.1%) -10.2 units, ROI: -36.4%
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs. LAD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-142 vs. TOR), KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-112 at TB), CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-185 at DET), LA DODGERS (-135 at CWS), KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. MIA), MILWAUKEE (-180 vs. TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: SEA-TB
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-122 vs. PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (at DET), LA DODGERS RL (at CWS), KANSAS CITY RL (vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, OAKLAND, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 172-204 record for -5.64 units (ROI -1.5%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever two weeks ago though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+180 at SD), CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at SF), CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL), OAKLAND (+114 at LAA), MIAMI (+200 at KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 154-158 record for +11.54 units (ROI 3.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at SF), CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL), OAKLAND (+114 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 87-105 for -16.34 units. The three-game teams are 46-48 for -0.49 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE ST LOUIS (+100 vs. ATL), FADE TEXAS (+150 at MIL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 109-90 for +1.79 units (0.9% ROI) through Sunday, 6/23.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1563-1446 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -164.04 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (+154 vs. PHI)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1442-1878 (43.4%) for -195.01 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+102 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+180 at SD), OAKLAND (+110 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3148-2747 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -396.55 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-142 vs. TOR), DETROIT (+154 vs. PHI), ST LOUIS (+100 vs. ATL), MILWAUKEE (-180 vs. TEX)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 887-766 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +19.08 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-245 vs. MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs. CHC), LA ANGELS (-130 vs. OAK)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 261-217 (54.6%) for +41.29 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 128-134 (+12.24 units, ROI: 4.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 170-109 in their last 279 tries (+27.10 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-46 (-6.01 units, ROI: -9%) in their last 67 tries.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+150 at MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 74-85 (-45.17 units, ROI: -28.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +170 (+18 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +105 (+24 diff), DETROIT +150 (+20 diff), MIAMI +200 (+35 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -130 (+40 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-DET OVER 8 (+0.7), CLE-BAL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.8), MIA-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), OAK-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(903) ATLANTA (43-32) at (904) ST LOUIS (39-37)
Trend: ATL trending Under at night (14-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(905) WASHINGTON (38-39) at (906) SAN DIEGO (41-41)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (9-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (37-41) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (36-42)
Trend: SF bad vs. LH starters (8-15, -9.80 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs CHC)
(909) CLEVELAND (49-26) at (910) BALTIMORE (49-28)
Trend: CLE pretty good vs. LH starters (15-5, +9.37 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
(911) SEATTLE (45-35) at (912) TAMPA BAY (38-40)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (19-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(915) OAKLAND (29-51) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-46)
Trend: LAA just 2-4 as a HOME favorite
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-135 vs OAK)
(917) PHILADELPHIA (51-26) at (918) DETROIT (36-41)
Trend: DET slight Over vs. RH starters (34-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(919) LOS ANGELES-NL (48-31) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (21-58)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (21-8, +2.60 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at CWS)
(921) MIAMI (27-50) at (922) KANSAS CITY (42-37)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (4-23, -20.07 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+200 at KC)
(923) TEXAS (37-40) at (924) MILWAUKEE (45-33)
Trend: MIL pretty good at home (22-12, +7.61 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-180 vs TEX)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) ATLANTA (43-32) at (904) ST LOUIS (39-37)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 11-2 (+8.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+100 vs ATL)
(909) CLEVELAND (49-26) at (910) BALTIMORE (49-28)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (4-1, +2.95 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 at BAL)
(911) SEATTLE (45-35) at (912) TAMPA BAY (38-40)
Trend: TB is 5-12 (-7.02 units) as a -120 favorite or worse (including underdog) with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-108 vs SEA)
(917) PHILADELPHIA (51-26) at (918) DETROIT (36-41)
Trend: PHI is 5-7 (-8.80 units) as heavy road favorite (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-185 at DET)
Trend: PHI is 6-1 (+3.55 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 at DET)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Letdown after series vs. DETROIT: 9-19 (32.1%) -10.2 units, ROI: -36.4%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 6/24 vs LA Dodgers
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs LAD)
