The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 289-141 (67.2%) for +43.08 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-192 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 93-109 for -14.08 units. The three-game teams are 47-50 for -1.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-192 vs. WSH), FADE LA ANGELS (-130 vs. OAK), FADE NY METS (+110 vs. NYY)
3+ games – FADE ST LOUIS (+114 vs. ATL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-47 (-7.01 units, ROI: -10.3%) in their last 68 tries.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL)
Trend: KC is 15-4 (+12.42 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs MIA)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 20-4 (+16.28 units) in the last 24 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+102 vs. TEX), MINNESOTA (-122 at AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, HOUSTON, TEXAS, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SEA-TB, WSH-SD, CHC-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-142 vs. PIT), FADE BALTIMORE (-192 vs. CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (at DET), KANSAS CITY RL (vs. MIA), HOUSTON RL (vs. COL), LA DODGERS RL (at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO, TAMPA BAY, OAKLAND, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA (GAMES 1 AND 2)
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 54-30 for -10.48 units and an ROI of -12.5%. However, a 5-0 record cut into the losses significantly last week
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 35-21 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -10.65 units, a season-long ROI of -19%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 178-206 record for -0.25 units (ROI -0.006%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 22-15 for +11.54 units over the last nine days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+160 at SD), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs SEA), OAKLAND (+110 at LAA), CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL), MIAMI (+180 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 157-158 record for +14.43 units (ROI 4.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. SEA), OAKLAND (+110 at LAA), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 93-109 for -14.08 units. The three-game teams are 47-50 for -1.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-192 vs. WSH), FADE LA ANGELS (-130 vs. OAK), FADE NY METS (+110 vs. NYY)
3+ games – FADE ST LOUIS (+114 vs. ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 112-91 for +3.91 units (1.9% ROI) through Tuesday, 6/25.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. SEA), CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL), HOUSTON (-198 vs. COL), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. TEX), LA DODGERS (-180 at CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 98 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/25 and these teams are 52-46 for +0.20 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but enjoyed a 7-2, +4.85-unit performance over the last nine days.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+110 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1563-1448 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.34 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, TORONTO, PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1443-1885 (43.4%) for -201.06 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, MIAMI, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3157-2750 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -390.85 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 890-766 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +22.08 units for backers and an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-218 vs MIA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 289-141 (67.2%) for +43.08 units and an ROI of 10%!
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-192 vs CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 129-135 (+11.69 units, ROI: 4.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-192 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 187-98 (+14.14 units, ROI: 5%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-198 vs COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 57-47 (+14.43 units, ROI: 13.9%) in their last 104 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-198 vs COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 172-109 in their last 281 tries (+29.40 units, ROI: 10.5%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-47 (-7.01 units, ROI: -10.3%) in their last 68 tries.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 76-85 (-42.87 units, ROI: -26.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+160 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +160 (+15 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +105 (+30 diff), CLEVELAND +160 (+20 diff), DETROIT +140 (+30 diff), MIAMI +180 (+40 diff), MILWAUKEE +100 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -130 (+30 diff), HOUSTON -185 (+40 diff), NY YANKEES -130 (+20 diff), MINNESOTA -122 (+15 diff), ATLANTA GAME 1 -135 (+30 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-CWS OVER 8 (+0.8), COL-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.7), MIN-AZ OVER 9 (+0.6), CHC-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CLE-BAL OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-DET UNDER 9 (-0.6), OAK-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) PITTSBURGH (38-41) at (902) CINCINNATI (37-42)
Trend: PIT trending Under vs. RH starters (20-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(903) WASHINGTON (38-41) at (904) SAN DIEGO (43-41)
Trend: SD slight Under vs. LH starters (11-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(909) SEATTLE (45-37) at (910) TAMPA BAY (40-40)
Trend: SEA not as good on the road (18-25, -10.49 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-122 at TB)
(911) OAKLAND (29-53) at (912) LOS ANGELES-AL (32-46)
Trend: OAK bad on the road (11-30, -9.46 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+110 at LAA)
(915) TORONTO (36-43) at (916) BOSTON (43-37)
Trend: BOS better vs. RH starters (33-24, +7.24 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-155 vs TOR)
(919) MIAMI (28-51) at (920) KANSAS CITY (43-38)
Trend: MIA slight Over during the day (22-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(921) COLORADO (27-52) at (922) HOUSTON (39-40)
Trend: HOU more Under against NL teams (5-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(923) TEXAS (37-42) at (924) MILWAUKEE (47-33)
Trend: MIL good during the day (23-12, +11.37 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+102 vs TEX)
(925) NEW YORK-AL (52-29) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (38-39)
Trend: NYM not as good vs. AL teams (6-10, -5.55 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 vs NYY)
(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (50-31) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (21-60)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (15-48, -26.28 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs LAD)
(931) ATLANTA (43-33) at (932) ST LOUIS (40-37) (DH Game #1)
Trend: STL trending Under during the day (10-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(905) ATLANTA (43-33) at (906) ST LOUIS (40-37) (DH Game #2)
Trend: ATL trending Under at night (14-32 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) PITTSBURGH (38-41) at (902) CINCINNATI (37-42)
Trend: CIN is 5-12 (-5.96 units) vs. PIT/MIL/CHC by starter Graham Ashcraft
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-142 vs PIT)
(909) SEATTLE (45-37) at (910) TAMPA BAY (40-40)
Trend: SEA is 13-6 (+2.93 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -122 currently)
(919) MIAMI (28-51) at (920) KANSAS CITY (43-38)
Trend: KC is 15-4 (+12.42 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-218 vs MIA)
(923) TEXAS (37-42) at (924) MILWAUKEE (47-33)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 20-4 (+16.28 units) in the last 24 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at MIL)
(925) NEW YORK-AL (52-29) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (38-39)
Trend: NYM is 5-9 (-4.16 units) with line range of -114 or worse at home with starter Sean Manaea
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 vs NYM)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 6/27)
