Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Favorites are just 19-33 (36.5%, -27.16 units) in the last 52 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -52.2%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs. NYY)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 344-319 (51.9%) for +37.21 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-192 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 vs. LAD), BOSTON (-122 vs. SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 161-164 record for +12.22 units (ROI 3.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), MINNESOTA (-110 at SEA), HOUSTON (+120 at NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 130-93 (+24.23 units, ROI: 10.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 11-2 (+8.70 units) at HOME within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-115 vs CIN)
Trend: COL is 3-14 (-8.75 units) on the road in the last two seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-258 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-102 at BOS), KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE), CINCINNATI (-105 at STL), LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET), MINNESOTA (-110 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-258 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CIN-STL, MIN-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: COL-CWS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-142 vs. HOU), KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-198 vs. COL), LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units thru 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, LA ANGELS, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, HOUSTON, OAKLAND
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 58-31 for -8.46 units and an ROI of -9.5%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs PIT), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-198 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is at 64-26 for -1.28 units (awful series by Philadelphia vs. MIA, losing two games as big favorites).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-258 vs. MIA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 38-21 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -7.65 units, a season long ROI of -13%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs. PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 183-216 record for -5.01 units (ROI -1.3%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 27-25 for +6.78 units over the last thirteen days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), MINNESOTA (-110 at SEA), HOUSTON (+120 at NYM), OAKLAND (+160 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 161-164 record, for +12.22 units (ROI 3.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+114 at KC), MINNESOTA (-110 at SEA), HOUSTON (+120 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-112 for -13.13 units. The three-game teams are 51-53 for +0.09 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE SAN DIEGO (-105 at BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 117-97 for +2.43 units (1.1% ROI) through Saturday, 6/29.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-155 vs. TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-198 vs. COL), LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 103 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/29, and these teams are 55-48 for +1.35 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-115 vs. SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 344-319 (51.9%) for +37.21 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-192 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 vs. LAD), BOSTON (-122 vs. SD)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1570-1456 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.35 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1454-1899 (43.4%) for -201.96 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (+164 at AZ), PITTSBURGH (+164 at ATL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3175-2759 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -384.75 units and an ROI of -6.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO, NY METS, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 895-768 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.35 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-192 vs. WSH)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 291-141 (67.4%) for +45.08 units and an ROI of 10.4%!
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-185 vs. COL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 263-218 (54.7%) for +42.29 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-122 vs. SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 163-149 run (+40.12 units, ROI: 12.9%).
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at BAL), PLAY COLORADO (+154 at CWS), PLAY DETROIT (-108 at LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 131-137 (+11.67 units, ROI: 4.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at BAL), PLAY DETROIT (-108 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-99 (+13.94 units, ROI: 4.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 59-47 (+16.43 units, ROI: 15.5%) in their last 106 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 130-93 (+24.23 units, ROI: 10.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 173-110 in their last 283 tries (+29.40 units, ROI: 10.4%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-112 vs. DET)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 76-86 (-43.87 units, ROI: -27.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-155 vs. TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +164 (+30 diff), MIAMI +210 (+35 diff), MINNESOTA -110 (+19 diff), WASHINGTON +160 (+15 diff), COLORADO +164 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -115 (+21 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-SEA OVER 7 (+0.9), CHC-MIL OVER 8 (+0.6), CIN-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-BOS UNDER 10.5 (-1.1), HOU-NYM UNDER 9 (-1.0), DET-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.9), LAD-SF UNDER 9 (-0.7)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) CHICAGO-NL (39-45) at (906) MILWAUKEE (49-34)
Trend: MIL is 10-5 (+3.12 units) vs. CHC/CWS with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-185 vs CHC)
(907) CINCINNATI (39-44) at (908) ST LOUIS (42-40)
Trend: CIN is 7-18 (-11.80 units) vs. divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 3-11 (-7.68 units) on the ROAD)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-105 at STL)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 11-2 (+8.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-115 vs CIN)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 17-7 (+8.32 units) within line range of -180 or worse in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-115 vs CIN)
(911) TEXAS (37-46) at (912) BALTIMORE (53-30)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-31 (-17.22 units) vs. teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+130 at BAL)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (53-32) at (914) TORONTO (38-44)
Trend: TOR is 4-12 (-14.67 units) vs. AL East foes with Kevin Gausman in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-108 vs NYY)
(915) CLEVELAND (52-29) at (916) KANSAS CITY (46-39)
Trend: CLE is 15-4 (+11.37 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+114 at KC)
(927) COLORADO (27-55) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (24-61)
Trend: COL is 3-14 (-8.75 units) on the road in the las two seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at CWS)
(929) OAKLAND (30-55) at (930) ARIZONA (40-43)
Trend: AZ is 10-5 (+4.64 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-192 vs OAK)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #9: Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Fri 6/28-Sun 6/30
Trend: Pittsburgh is 5-15 (25%, -6.06 units) in the last 20 games vs. Atlanta
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -30.3%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+164 at ATL)
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Favorites are just 19-33 (36.5%, -27.16 units) in the last 52 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -52.2%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs. NYY)
Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 18-7 (72%, +12.88 units) in the last 25 games between TEX and BAL (0-3 this series though)
– The ROI on this trend is 51.5%
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING TEXAS (+130 at BAL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, 7/5)
