Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 25-2 (+21.85 units) as a ROAD favorite of -133 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-135 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 at WSH)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 332-311 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-81 (-43.14 units, ROI: -28.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (+100 vs LAD)
BAL has letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 8-18 (30.8%) -8.6 units, ROI: -33.1%
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-120 at TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-122 at PIT), TEXAS (+102 vs SF), KANSAS CITY (+102 vs SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 at WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BAL-TB, BOS-CWS, AZ-SD, TOR-OAK
PLAY UNDER in: COL-STL
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-115 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA RL (at WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru Sunday 6/2, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, TEXAS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 39-26 for -16.92 units and a ROI of -26%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 @ WAS), FADE ST LOUIS (-198 vs. COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle has been 28-18 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -11.3 units, a season-long ROI of -24.6%.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (-198 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 139-170 record for -9.47 units (ROI -3.1%). This angle took a hit on Wednesday 6/5, going 0-5 for -5.13 units.
System Matches: BOSTON (-108 @ CWS), OAKLAND (+140 vs. TOR), TEXAS (+100 vs. SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-131 record, for +5.20 units (ROI 2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches: BOSTON (-108 @ CWS), OAKLAND (+140 vs. TOR), TEXAS (+100 vs. SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 79-85 for -1.82 units. The 3-game teams are 40-40 for +2.80 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE TORONTO (-162 @ OAK)
3-game – FADE TAMPA BAY (+100 vs. BAL), FADE LA ANGELS (+155 vs. HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 88-72 for +2.78 units (1.7% ROI) through Thursday, 6/6.
System Matches: CINCINNATI (-115 vs. CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 85 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/6 and these teams are 42-43 for -6.31 units.
System Matches: MINNESOTA (-118 @ PIT), MILWAUKEE (-120 @ DET), SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. ARI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 332-311 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1537-1423 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -162.41 units. This represents a ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-108 at CWS), LA DODGERS (-120 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (-122 at TEX), TEXAS (+102 vs SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1411-1845 (43.3%) for -193.22 units and a ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (at DET), HOUSTON (-180 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3086-2703 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -411.66 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+102 vs. MIN), NY YANKEES (+100 vs LAD), TAMPA BAY (+100 vs. BAL), TEXAS (+102 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-115 vs. CHC)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 870-756 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.63 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (vs. MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (+114 vs. TOR)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 443-379 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.60 units, for a ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-198 vs COL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 255-212 (54.6%) for +40.03 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-102 skid (-29.69 units, ROI: -19.8%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-127 (-52.78 units, ROI: -28.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 153-140 run (+37.18 units, ROI: 12.7%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-125 vs AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 122-125 (+14.11 units, ROI: 5.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 52-44 (+12.38 units, ROI: 12.9%) in their last 96 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-115 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 126-91 (+22.03 units, ROI: 10.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (-115 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-81 (-43.14 units, ROI: -28.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (+100 vs LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+180 vs. ATL), COLORADO (+170 @ STL), BOSTON (-108 @ CWS)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (-115 vs CHC), SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. ARI)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-WAS OVER 7.5O (+0.85), COL-STL OVER 7.5O (+0.55), ARI-SD OVER 7O (+0.85)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) CHICAGO-NL (31-32) at (954) CINCINNATI (30-33)
Trend: CIN is 14-7 (+7.56 units) at HOME with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-115 vs CHC)
(955) COLORADO (22-40) at (956) ST LOUIS (29-32)
Trend: COL is 2-7 (-5.75 units) vs NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber L3 seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at STL)
(963) SEATTLE (36-28) at (964) KANSAS CITY (37-26)
Trend: Bryce Miller was 5-0 (+5.30 units) vs AL Central last season
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-122 at KC)
(967) TORONTO (30-32) at (968) OAKLAND (25-39)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 25-2 (+21.85 units) as a ROAD favorite of -133 or higher in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-135 at OAK)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 8-18 (30.8%) -8.6 units, ROI: -33.1%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 6/7 at Tampa Bay
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-120 at TB)
