Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 9, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 127-134 record, for +5.17 units (ROI 2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. CHC), SEATTLE (+102 at KC), OAKLAND (+105 vs. TOR), MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+142 at DET)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 333-312 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+105 vs. TOR), NY YANKEES (+102 vs. LAD), MIAMI (-108 vs. CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 154-140 run (+38.18 units, ROI: 13%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT)
Trend: TEX heavy Under at home (8-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAA is 1-11 (-12.05 units) at home against divisional teams with a > 41% win percentage with starter Patrick Sandoval
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+136 vs. HOU)
Trend: MIA is 8-29 (-18.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-105 vs. CLE)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at CIN), NY YANKEES (+105 vs. LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: LAD-NYY
PLAY UNDER in BAL-TB, SEA-KC
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (-162 vs. SF), FADE PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs NYM), HOUSTON RL (at LAA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024, through Sunday, 6/2, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, BOSTON, OAKLAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 143-173 record for -8.00 units (ROI -2.5%). This angle took a hit on Wednesday 6/5, going 0-5 for -5.13 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. CHC), SEATTLE (+102 at KC), OAKLAND (+105 vs. TOR), MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+142 at DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 127-134 record, for +5.17 units (ROI 2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. CHC), SEATTLE (+102 at KC), OAKLAND (+105 vs. TOR), MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+142 at DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 80-86 for -2.52 units. The three-game teams are 40-43 for -0.30 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+140 vs ATL), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs BOS), FADE PITTSBURGH (-115 vs MIN)
3-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-122 vs SEA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 91-72 for +5.78 units (3.5% ROI) through Saturday, 6/8.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM), CINCINNATI (+105 vs CHC), LA DODGERS (-125 at NYY)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 89 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/8 and these teams are 44-45 for -6.81 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 333-312 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OAKLAND (+105 vs. TOR), NY YANKEES (+102 vs. LAD), MIAMI (-108 vs. CLE)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1542-1427 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -161.69 units. This represents an ROI of -5.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-122 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1416-1849 (43.4%) for -194.07 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-108 at PIT), BOSTON (-155 at CWS), ARIZONA (+120 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3089-2709 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -410.89 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+140 vs. ATL), KANSAS CITY (-120 vs. SEA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs. BOS), ST LOUIS (-185 vs. COL), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. AZ)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 873-759 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.98 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+114 vs. BAL), MIAMI (-108 vs. CLE)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 444-380 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.60 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+114 vs BAL), TEXAS (-162 vs SF), OAKLAND (+105 vs TOR), DETROIT (-170 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 85-73 outright (+2.15 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 154-140 run (+38.18 units, ROI: 13%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 54-44 (+14.38 units, ROI: 14.7%) in their last 98 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+105 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 128-91 (+24.03 units, ROI: 11%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+105 vs CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-82 (-44.14 units, ROI: -28.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +142 (+28 diff), NY YANKEES +105 (+23 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -148 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.5), SEA-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.6), LAD-NYY OVER 7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PHI UNDER 11.5 (-1.0), CHC-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.5), BOS-CWS UNDER 9 (-0.6), HOU-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(953) ATLANTA (35-27) at (954) WASHINGTON (29-35)
Trend: ATL trending Under on the road (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (31-34) at (956) CINCINNATI (32-33)
Trend: CHC bad on the road (13-21, -6.80 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-125 at CIN)
(957) COLORADO (23-41) at (958) ST LOUIS (30-33)
Trend: STL not as good during the day (9-16, -10.92 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-185 vs COL)
(959) ARIZONA (30-35) at (960) SAN DIEGO (34-34)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (15-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(961) BALTIMORE (41-22) at (962) TAMPA BAY (31-33)
Trend: BAL good during the day (19-9, +6.75 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 at TB)
(963) SEATTLE (36-30) at (964) KANSAS CITY (39-26)
Trend: KC good vs. AL West/East (22-12, +10.71 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-122 vs SEA)
(965) BOSTON (32-33) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (17-48)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (12-39, -21.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs BOS)
(967) TORONTO (31-33) at (968) OAKLAND (26-40)
Trend: TOR more Under vs. AL Central/West (8-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(969) HOUSTON (30-35) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (24-40)
Trend: HOU not great bet vs. LH starters (7-12, -9.86 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-162 at LAA)
(971) SAN FRANCISCO (32-33) at (972) TEXAS (30-34)
Trend: TEX heavy Under at home (8-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(975) MILWAUKEE (38-26) at (976) DETROIT (31-33)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. AL teams (18-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(977) CLEVELAND (41-22) at (978) MIAMI (22-42)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (23-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (41-25) at (980) NEW YORK-AL (45-21)
Trend: NYY good at night (29-14, +9.37 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+105 vs LAD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(955) CHICAGO-NL (31-34) at (956) CINCINNATI (32-33)
Trend: Frankie Montas 0-5 (-6.30 units) vs NL Central
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+105 vs. CHC)
(961) BALTIMORE (41-22) at (962) TAMPA BAY (31-33)
Trend: BAL is 14-2 (+11.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-142 at TB)
(969) HOUSTON (30-35) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (24-40)
Trend: HOU is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons but then
HOU is 12-3 (+7.60 units) as a road favorite within line range of -140 to -160 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON if they fall into -140 to -160, FADE HOUSTON if they fall into -165 to -190 (*-162 currently)
Trend: LAA is 1-11 (-12.05 units) at home against divisional teams with a > 41% win pct with starter Patrick Sandoval
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU)
Trend: LAA is 1-13 (-13.67 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU)
Trend: LAA is 4-16 (-15.17 units) in the last 20 day game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 2-10 (-7.70 units) in the last 12 starts as a day game underdog)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+136 vs HOU)
(971) SAN FRANCISCO (32-33) at (972) TEXAS (30-34)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 19-4 (+15.28 units) in the last 23 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-162 vs SF)
(973) MINNESOTA (33-31) at (974) PITTSBURGH (31-33)
Trend: MIN is 4-10 (-7.44 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-105 at PIT)
(975) MILWAUKEE (38-26) at (976) DETROIT (31-33)
Trend: DET is 3-6 (-3.40 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Tarik Skubal
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-170 vs MIL)
(977) CLEVELAND (41-22) at (978) MIAMI (22-42)
Trend: MIA is 8-29 (-18.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-105 vs CLE)
(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (41-25) at (980) NEW YORK-AL (45-21)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is just 5-8 (-5.65 units) as a short road favorite (in line range of -115 to -140) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-125 at NYY)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday 6/11)
