Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Home Teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-303 (52.1%) for +38.89 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.2%.
Systems Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 252-209 (54.7%) for +39.90 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
Systems Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
(969) MINNESOTA (24-20) at (970) CLEVELAND (28-17)
Trend: MIN is 4-9 (-6.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-122 at CLE)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (2-1, +1.05 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs MIN)
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 5/17-Sun 5/19
Trend: Colorado is 5-19 (20.8%, -11.63 units) in their last 24 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -48.5%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 52-42 (+15.18 units, ROI: 16.1%) in their last 94 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-175 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+110 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+102 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-290 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+145 at HOU), BOSTON (-120 at STL), ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TB-TOR, SEA-BAL, NYM-MIA, WSH-PHI, MIN-CLE, DET-AZ
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, KANSAS CITY RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, DETROIT
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are 28-16 for -6.32 units and a ROI of -14.4%. However, the ROI dropped 50% over the past 36 days.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs PIT)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving at 39-19 for -7.36 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 vs. CIN), PLAY NY YANKEES (-285 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 97-118 record, for -7.07 units. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+154 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+110 at TOR), BALTIMORE (-110 vs SEA), CLEVELAND (+102 vs MIN), OAKLAND (+154 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+145 at HOU), DETROIT (+130 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 35-43 for +1.24 units after a poor three-week stretch of 21-25 for -5.77 units. The three-game teams are 28-29 for +3.64 units. The 3-game angle was 14-16 for +0.14 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+170 at CHC
3+ games – FADE MIAMI (+110 vs NYM), FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs MIL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 57-44 for -2.87 units through Friday, 5/17, after a 33-32, +4.23 units stretch over the last five weeks.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+110 at TOR), PLAY NY YANKEES (-285 vs CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 51 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/17 and these teams are 31-20 for +6.07 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+154 at PHI), OAKLAND (+154 at KC), BOSTON (-120 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-303 (52.1%) for +38.89 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1502-1404 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -173.77 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, BALTIMORE, LA ANGELS, ST LOUIS, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1378-1793 (43.5%) for -177.24 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, NY METS, OAKLAND
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3029-2655 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -404.72 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 854-736 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +17.74 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-135 vs TB), CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs PIT), ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 252-209 (54.7%) for +39.90 units and an ROI of 8.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-155 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 78-63 outright (+7.17 units, ROI: 5.1%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 146-125 run (+45.23 units, ROI: 16.7%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-122 at CLE), PLAY OAKLAND (+154 at KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 113-109 (+20.90 units, ROI: 9.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+154 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 175-93 (+10.06 units, ROI: 3.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs. CWS), PLAY HOUSTON (-175 vs. MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 52-42 (+15.18 units, ROI: 16.1%) in their last 94 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-175 vs MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 159-104 in their last 263 tries (+23.32 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +170 (+31 diff), WASHINGTON +154 (+30 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +230 (+36 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -118 (+36 diff), TEXAS -135 (+36 diff), BOSTON -120 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CLE OVER 7 (+1.2), WSH-PHI OVER 7 (+1.0), DET-AZ OVER 7.5 (+0.9), CIN-LAD OVER 8 (+0.7), SEA-BAL OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-KC UNDER 9.5 (-1.6), PIT-CHC UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), COL-SF UNDER 8 (-0.5), BOS-STL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(955) NEW YORK-NL (20-24) at (956) MIAMI (14-32)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-6 (+4.82 units) in April/May in the last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-130 at MIA)
Trend: Luis Severino is 17-5 (+11.80 units) against teams with a losing record in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-130 at MIA)
(957) WASHINGTON (20-23) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (32-14)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-8 (-2.47 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+154 at PHI)
(959) SAN DIEGO (23-24) at (960) ATLANTA (26-15)
Trend: SD is 10-17 (-9.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-102 at ATL)
(965) TAMPA BAY (24-22) at (966) TORONTO (19-24)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 13-4 (+7.27 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+110 at TOR)
Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-2, -1.18 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-130 vs TB)
(969) MINNESOTA (24-20) at (970) CLEVELAND (28-17)
Trend: MIN is 4-9 (-6.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-122 at CLE)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (2-1, +1.05 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs MIN)
(971) OAKLAND (19-28) at (972) KANSAS CITY (27-19)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 4-11 (-4.95 units) as a night underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at KC)
(975) MILWAUKEE (26-18) at (976) HOUSTON (20-25)
Trend: HOU is 3-12 (-18.11 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs MIL)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 2-6 (-7.25 units) at home against NL teams with a winning record in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs MIL)
(979) DETROIT (22-22) at (980) ARIZONA (21-24)
Trend: Jack Flaherty is 3-6 (-3.85 units) in road games against NL West opponents
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+130 at AZ)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 5/17-Sun 5/19
Trend: Colorado is 5-19 (20.8%, -11.63 units) in their last 24 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -48.5%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at SF)
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Thu 5/16-Sun 5/19
Trend: Pittsburgh is 6-17 (26.1%, -8.89 units) in their last 23 games at Chicago Cubs
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -38.7%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+170 at CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
