The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+110 at HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. SF), TEXAS (-205 vs. WSH)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in COL-MIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TEXAS, CLEVELAND

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through Monday, 4/23, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the ’24 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MIAMI, NY METS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, BOSTON

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 20-7 for +5.61 units and an ROI of 20.8%. However, the ROI dropped 16% over the past 20 days.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (-205 vs WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 69-73 record for +6.82 units.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+110 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 35-26 for +0.24 units through Wednesday, 5/1.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-115 vs SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1347-1755 (43.4%) for -176.57 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2985-2622 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.47 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON (-115 vs SF)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 846-718 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +33.22 units for backers and an ROI of 2.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+114 vs NYY)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 426-361 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.16 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+114 vs. NYY), TEXAS (-205 vs. WSH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 108-102 (+23.62 units, ROI: 11.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+136 at MIA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +114 (+17 diff), WASHINGTON +170 (+20 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) COLORADO (7-23) at (952) MIAMI (8-24)
Trend: COL trending Under during the day (2-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(953) CHICAGO-NL (19-12) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (15-15)
Trend: CHC has been good vs. RH starters (17-8, +10.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-108 at NYM)

(957) CLEVELAND (20-10) at (958) HOUSTON (10-20)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs. AL West/East (14-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(961) WASHINGTON (15-15) at (962) TEXAS (16-15)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (5-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) CHICAGO-NL (19-12) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (15-15)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 20-7 (+12.72 units) in the last 27 day game starts (including 12-3 (+9.83 units) in L15)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-112 vs. CHC)

(955) NEW YORK-AL (20-12) at (956) BALTIMORE (19-11)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 7-13 (-9.27 units) in the last 20 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at BAL)

(957) CLEVELAND (20-10) at (958) HOUSTON (10-20)
Trend: CLE is 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (2-0, +2.05 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+110 at HOU)

(961) WASHINGTON (15-15) at (962) TEXAS (16-15)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 18-4 (+14.28 units) in the last 22 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-205 vs WSH)

Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 4/29-Thu 5/2
Trend: NY METS are 4-9 (30.8%, -12.08 units) in their last 13 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -92.9%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-112 vs CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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