Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 5/20-Wed 5/22
Trend: Boston has lost 16 of its last 18 (11.1%, -13.98 units) games at Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is -77.7%
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+120 at TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 68-77 (-39.67 units, ROI: -27.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-162 vs AZ)
Trend: BAL is 11-1 (+10.60 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at STL)
Trend: BAL is 12-3 (+9.25 units) against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at STL)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-22 (21.4%) -15.45 units, ROI: -55.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/21 at Philadelphia
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+150 at PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): TAMPA BAY (-142 vs BOS), COLORADO (+114 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, COLORADO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: COL-OAK, PLAY UNDER in: CWS-TOR
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): TORONTO RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through Sunday 5/20, they are 352-293 for -8.65 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, OAKLAND
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again fading fast, 31-17 for -5.29 units and an ROI of -11%. The ROI on this system has dropped 50% over the past 42 days.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 24-16 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -10.76 units, a season long ROI of -26.9%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-198 vs LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 111-134 record for -6.75 units (ROI -2.8%). This angle has settled in relatively but has been better in the past seasons.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at TOR), DETROIT (-110 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 46-54 for +4.44 units. The three-game teams are 30-31 for +4.35 units. Both of these angles are on profitable two weeks, and I will continue to watch them closely to validate their usefulness.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (+120 at TB), FADE TORONTO (-185 vs CWS), FADE LA ANGELS (+164 at HOU)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-110 vs DET)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 62-46 for +1.07 units (1% ROI) through Monday, 5/20.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-135 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-162 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (-130 vs. NYM), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 63 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/20, and these teams are 34-29 for -0.33 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-185 at WSH), OAKLAND (-135 vs COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1510-1409 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.05 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS, WASHINGTON, TORONTO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1382-1802 (43.4%) for -182.70 units and a ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, COLORADO, NY METS, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3043-2661 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -399.14 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 856-740 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +14.43 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 vs. ATL), TAMPA BAY (-142 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-130 vs. NYM)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 436-370 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.18 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-142 vs BOS), MIAMI (+120 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 47-95 skid (-23.69 units, ROI: -16.7%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (-135 vs COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 57-120 (-47.78 units, ROI: -27%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-185 at WSH), FADE OAKLAND (-135 vs COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 79-66 outright (+4.40 units, ROI: 3.0%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 114-111 (+19.90 units, ROI: 8.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 68-77 (-39.67 units, ROI: -27.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-162 vs AZ)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +105 (+15 diff), BOSTON +120 (+20 diff), TEXAS +145 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -162 (+20 diff), KANSAS CITY -110 (+23 diff), BALTIMORE -148 (+27 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), BOS-TB UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), SD-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) SAN DIEGO (25-25) at (902) CINCINNATI (19-28)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 7-1 (+6.05 units) vs Cincinnati in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-120 at CIN)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 9-1 (+7.85 units) on the ROAD within the line range of +100 to -115 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -120 currently)
(903) SAN FRANCISCO (23-25) at (904) PITTSBURGH (22-26)
Trend: Martin Perez is 11-5 (+6.30 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (*if they fall into this line range, +114 currently*)
(905) MILWAUKEE (27-20) at (906) MIAMI (16-33)
Trend: MIA is 8-27 (-16.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+120 vs MIL)
(913) SEATTLE (26-22) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (33-16)
Trend: NYY is 9-1 (+7.45 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs SEA)
(915) CHICAGO-AL (14-34) at (916) TORONTO (21-25)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 12-16 (-11.96 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-185 vs CWS)
(921) NEW YORK-NL (21-26) at (922) CLEVELAND (31-17)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 5-17 (-10.75 units) as a night underdog of +100 or worse in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+110 at CLE)
(923) TEXAS (24-24) at (924) PHILADELPHIA (34-14)
Trend: PHI is 4-8 (-10.68 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs TEX)
(927) BALTIMORE (29-16) at (928) ST LOUIS (21-26)
Trend: BAL is 11-1 (+10.60 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at STL)
Trend: BAL is 12-3 (+9.25 units) against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at STL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 5/20-Wed 5/22
Trend: Boston has lost 16 of its L18 (11.1%, -13.98 units) games at Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is -77.7%
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+120 at TB)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 19-9 (67.9%) 9.66 units, ROI: 34.5%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/21 vs. Atlanta
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+102 vs ATL)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 11-17 (39.3%) -3.08 units, ROI: -11%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/21 vs. San Francisco
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+114 vs SF)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-22 (21.4%) -15.45 units, ROI: -55.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 5/21 at Philadelphia
System Matches: FADE TEXAS (+150 at PHI)
