Today’s MLB Betting Trend
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-238 at CWS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 281-136 (67.4%) for +44.19 units and an ROI of 10.6%!aa
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. SEA)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 1-7 (-5.95 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 at DET)
(913) TEXAS (24-26) at (914) PHILADELPHIA (36-14)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-28 (-14.12 units) vs. teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+160 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 19-5 (+10.92 units) in the last 24 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): SAN DIEGO (-108 at CIN), TORONTO (-105 at DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-238 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX), COLORADO (+105 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches (PLAY OVER BOTH): COL-OAK, TOR-DET
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-170 vs SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this super”majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): PHILADELPHIA RL, BALTIMORE RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment. So far in 2024 through Sunday 5/20, they are 352-293 for -8.65 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, OAKLAND
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 39-17 for -3.32 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX), PLAY BALTIMORE (-238 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 25-17 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -11.81 units, a season long ROI of -28.1%.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-238 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 115-136 record for -3.84 units (ROI -1.5%). This angle has settled in relatively but has been better in the past seasons.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): SAN FRANCISCO (+142 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (-108 at CIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 66-48 for +2.10 units thru Wednesday 5/22.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 67 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/22 and these teams are 37-30 for +2.13 units.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-115 vs TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 329-306 (51.8%) for +35.25 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs ATL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1513-1412 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -173.03 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at PIT), TORONTO (-105 at DET), ATLANTA (-115 at CHC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3051-2667 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.36 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs. TEX), PITTSBURGH (-162 vs. SF), NY YANKEES (-148 vs. SEA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 859-743 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +14.18 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 281-136 (67.4%) for +44.19 units and an ROI of 10.6%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 115-111 (+21.54 units, ROI: 9.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-115 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 178-95 (+9.84 units, ROI: 3.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 69-78 (-40.29 units, ROI: -27.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +195 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAKLAND -125 (+19 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-OAK OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.8)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (24-26) at (902) PITTSBURGH (23-27)
Trend: SF not great on the road (9-16, -8.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+142 at PIT)
(903) SAN DIEGO (26-26) at (904) CINCINNATI (20-29)
Trend: SD trending Over during the day (12-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(905) ATLANTA (28-18) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (27-23)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs RH starters (8-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(907) SEATTLE (27-23) at (908) NEW YORK-AL (34-17)
Trend: NYY good during the day (14-6, +5.66 units
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-142 vs SEA)
(909) TORONTO (22-26) at (910) DETROIT (23-26)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (5-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(911) BALTIMORE (29-18) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (15-35)
Trend: CWS bad against RH starters (10-28, -13.03 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 vs BAL)
(915) COLORADO (16-32) at (916) OAKLAND (20-31)
Trend: OAK good in interleague play so far (9-5, +3.40 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-125 vs COL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(907) SEATTLE (27-23) at (908) NEW YORK-AL (34-17)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-14 (-9.92 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+120 at NYY)
(909) TORONTO (22-26) at (910) DETROIT (23-26)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 1-7 (-5.95 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 at DET)
(911) BALTIMORE (29-18) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (15-35)
Trend: BAL is 12-2 (+9.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-238 at CWS)
(913) TEXAS (24-26) at (914) PHILADELPHIA (36-14)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-28 (-14.12 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+160 at PHI)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 14-3 (+8.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -192 currently)
Trend: PHI is 19-5 (+10.92 units) in last 24 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs TEX)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
