Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that the professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss and is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 UNITS and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-258 vs. CWS), PLAY LA DODGERS (-298 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIA-LAD, PLAY UNDER in LAA-PIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024.
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return. Considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, NY METS, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, OAKLAND, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 21-9 for +2.79 units and a ROI of 9.3%. However, the ROI dropped 29% over the past 28 days.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH), FADE ATLANTA (-192 vs BOS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 31-14 for -3.46 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-298 vs. MIA), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-258 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 17-11 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -6.66 units, a season-low ROI of -23.8%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-192 vs BOS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced an 83-93 record for +2.84 units (ROI 1.6%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC), NY METS (+105 at STL), OAKLAND (+105 vs TEX), MILWAUKEE (+105 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streak
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-38 for -0.05 units after a poor two-week stretch of 15-20 for -7.06 units. The three-game teams are 20-23 for -1.63 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 6-10 for -5.13 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE TEXAS (-125 at OAK)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak are 46-31 for +6.31 units (8.2% ROI) through Monday, 5/6, after a great 22-19, +12.51 units stretch over the last three-plus weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-298 vs. MIA), CLEVELAND (-125 vs. DET), TAMPA BAY (-258 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-122 vs. HOU), PITTSBURGH (-135 vs LAA), PHILADELPHIA (-125 vs. TOR), BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 43 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/6, and these teams are 25-19 for +0.93 units.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 at COL), PLAY ATLANTA (-192 vs BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1488-1388 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.74 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-130 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH), BOSTON (+160 at ATL), WASHINGTON (+180 vs BAL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1353-1772 (43.3%) for -187.64 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-162 at COL), DETROIT (+105 at CLE), LA ANGELS (+114 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TB), SEATTLE (+124 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (+105 at KC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3000-2630 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -402.07 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+180 vs BAL), NY YANKEES (-118 vs. HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-125 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (-258 vs CWS), LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-724 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +28.90 units for backers and an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+110 vs AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 433-362 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.86 units, for an ROI of 3.0%.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+110 vs AZ)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 279-135 (67.4%) for +44.24 units and an ROI of 10.7%!
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 73-61 outright (+3.65 units, ROI: 2.7%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 at COL), PLAY DETROIT (+105 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 142-117 run (+50.00 units, ROI: 19.3%).
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+105 at CLE), PLAY CINCINNATI (+110 vs AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 110-104 (+23.31 units, ROI: 10.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+110 vs AZ)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 172-90 (+12.89 units, ROI: 4.9%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-125 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 157-102 in their last 259 tries (+25.45 units, ROI: 9.8%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 66-72 (-33.91 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA), FADE BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +110 (+18 diff), COLORADO +136 (+17 diff), MIAMI +240 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +210 (+40 diff), HOUSTON +102 (+23 diff), TORONTO +105 (+17 diff), WASHINGTON +180 (+24 diff), BOSTON +160 (+18 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY -125 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-CHC OVER 9 (+1.1), AZ-CIN OVER 8.5 (+1.0), LAA-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-KC UNDER 9 (-0.8), CWS-TB UNDER 8 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ARIZONA (15-20) at (902) CINCINNATI (16-18)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (5-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(903) SAN DIEGO (19-19) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (21-15)
Trend: CHC has been good at home (12-5, +7.13 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs SD)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (17-18) at (906) ST LOUIS (15-20)
Trend: NYM trending Under at night (5-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (15-21) at (908) COLORADO (8-26)
Trend: COL not good vs. LH starters (2-8, -4.97 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+136 vs SF)
(909) MIAMI (10-27) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (24-13)
Trend: LAD has been better at night (17-6, +3.19 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-298 vs MIA)
(913) DETROIT (18-17) at (914) CLEVELAND (23-12)
Trend: DET solid vs LH starters (5-1, +4.22 units)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+105 at CLE)
(915) CHICAGO-AL (8-27) at (916) TAMPA BAY (18-18)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (3-15, -10.06 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TB)
(917) HOUSTON (12-22) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (23-13)
Trend: NYY trending Under at night (6-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(919) SEATTLE (19-16) at (920) MINNESOTA (20-14)
Trend: SEA heavy Under in general (8-25 O/U on the year)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (12-23) at (922) PITTSBURGH (17-19)
Trend: PIT better vs. LH starters (8-4, +4.52 units)
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-135 vs LAA)
(925) BALTIMORE (23-11) at (926) WASHINGTON (17-17)
Trend: BAL solid on the road (11-4, +5.69 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-218 at WSH)
(927) BOSTON (19-16) at (928) ATLANTA (20-12)
Trend: ATL heavy Under in interleague play (1-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(929) MILWAUKEE (20-14) at (930) KANSAS CITY (21-15)
Trend: KC better at home (14-7, +7.25 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-125 vs MIL)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (15-21) at (908) COLORADO (8-26)
Trend: Dakota Hudson is 9-4 (+5.59 units) against NL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+136 vs SF)
(909) MIAMI (10-27) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (24-13)
Trend: MIA is 2-6 (-3.60 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+240 at LAD)
(913) DETROIT (18-17) at (914) CLEVELAND (23-12)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 11-1 (+10.87 units) in the last 12 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+105 at CLE)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (2-1, +1.05 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, -125 currently)
(923) TORONTO (16-19) at (924) PHILADELPHIA (25-11)
Trend: PHI is 3-12 (-11.53 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez L2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-125 vs TOR)
(929) MILWAUKEE (20-14) at (930) KANSAS CITY (21-15)
Trend: MIL was good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (3-0, +3.40 units this season) with starter Colin Rea
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+105 at KC)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 5/7-Thu 5/9
Trend: Colorado is 4-16 (20%, -9.73 units) in their last 20 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -48.7%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+136 vs SF)
Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Tue 5/7-Wed 5/8
Trend: Under the total is 11-0 (100%, +11 units) in the last 11 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 5/10)
