Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-278 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-125 at CHC), SEATTLE (-115 at MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-278 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: NYM-STL, TEX-OAK GAME 1
PLAY UNDER in: DET-CLE, SD-CHC, SEA-MIN
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and na ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, LA DODGERS RL, BALTIMORE RL, TAMPA BAY RL, NY YANKEES RL, SAN FRANCISCO RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: NY METS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, BALTIMORE, OAKLAND
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 22-10 for +1.61 units and an ROI of 5%. However, the ROI dropped 33% over the past 29 days.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs. BOS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 33-14 for -1.46 units.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 18-11 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -5.66 units, a season-low ROI of -19.5%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs. BOS), FADE LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced an 85-95 record, for +3.03 units (ROI 1.7%). This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+140 at STL), MILWAUKEE (+114 at KC), OAKLAND GAME 1 (+105 vs. TEX), OAKLAND GAME 2 (+120 vs. TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-38 for -0.05 units after a poor 2-week stretch of 15-20 for -7.06 units. The three-game teams are 21-23 for -0.63 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 7-10 for -4.13 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+145 vs BAL)
3+ games – FADE TEXAS GAME 1 (-125 at OAK)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 50-34 for +5.29 units (6.3% ROI) through Tuesday 5/7 after a great 26-22, +11.49 units stretch over the last three plus weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA), TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-148 vs. HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-170 vs. TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 45 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/7 and these teams are 27-19 for +2.93 units.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND GAME 1 (+105 vs TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 326-301 (52%) for +38.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-135 vs LAA), OAKLAND GAME 1 (+110 vs TEX)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1490-1390 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.12 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, TEXAS GAME 1, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1358-1773 (43.4%) for -182.70 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, BOSTON, SAN DIEGO, MIAMI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3005-2630 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -396.27 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND GAME 1, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 849-725 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.90 units for backers and a ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+100 vs. AZ), PITTSBURGH (-135 vs. LAA), COLORADO (+142 vs, SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 433-363 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.86 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+142 vs. SF)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 250-209 (54.5%) for +37.90 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND GAME 1 (+110 vs. TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 143-118 run (+50.20 units, ROI: 19.2%).
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-166 vs. NYM), PLAY CINCINNATI (+100 vs. AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 110-105 (+22.31 units, ROI: 10.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-166 vs. NYM), PLAY CINCINNATI (+100 vs. AZ)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 174-90 (+14.89 units, ROI: 5.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 124-88 (+22.33 units, ROI: 10.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 158-102 in their last 260 tries (+26.45 units, ROI: 10.2%).
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 67-73 (-35.09 units, ROI: -25.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-278 vs. MIA), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs. TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +225 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +195 (+22 diff), TORONTO +142 (+19 diff), BOSTON +170 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -142 (+26 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-CHC OVER 7.5 (+1.6), DET-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-TB UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), TOR-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), MIA-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.7), LAA-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(953) SAN DIEGO (19-20) at (954) CHICAGO-NL (22-15)
Trend: CHC has been good at home (13-5, +8.13 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+105 vs SD)
(957) ARIZONA (16-20) at (958) CINCINNATI (16-19)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (5-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(967) CHICAGO-AL (8-28) at (968) TAMPA BAY (19-18)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (3-16, -11.06 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 at TB)
(969) HOUSTON (12-23) at (970) NEW YORK-AL (24-13)
Trend: NYY trending Under at night (7-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(971) SEATTLE (20-16) at (972) MINNESOTA (20-15)
Trend: SEA heavy Under in general (9-25 O/U on the year)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(977) MILWAUKEE (21-14) at (978) KANSAS CITY (21-16)
Trend: KC better at home (14-8, +5.90 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-135 vs MIL)
(979) BALTIMORE (23-12) at (980) WASHINGTON (18-17)
Trend: BAL solid record on the road (11-5, +3.51 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-175 at WSH)
(981) BOSTON (19-17) at (982) ATLANTA (21-12)
Trend: ATL heavy Under in interleague play (1-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(961) DETROIT (19-17) at (962) CLEVELAND (23-13)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (1-0, +1.00 unit this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-135 vs. DET)
(963) TEXAS (21-16) at (964) OAKLAND (17-20) (DH Game #1)
Trend: OAK is 5-15 (-6.70 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+105 vs. TEX)
(967) CHICAGO-AL (8-28) at (968) TAMPA BAY (19-18)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 21-6 (+11.87 units) against teams with a < 43% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 18-5 (+8.65 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 vs. CWS)
(969) HOUSTON (12-23) at (970) NEW YORK-AL (24-13)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 7-14 (-10.32 units) in the last 21 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-148 vs. HOU)
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (13-23) at (974) PITTSBURGH (17-20)
Trend: Martin Perez is 6-1 (+5.10 units) vs. LA Angels
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-135 vs. LAA)
(975) TORONTO (16-20) at (976) PHILADELPHIA (26-11)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 12-4 (+6.60 units) vs NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+142 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 21-3 (+16.15 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-170 vs. TOR)
(977) MILWAUKEE (21-14) at (978) KANSAS CITY (21-16)
Trend: KC is 5-8 (-7.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. MIL)
Trend: KC is 13-4 (+10.42 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. MIL)
(979) BALTIMORE (23-12) at (980) WASHINGTON (18-17)
Trend: BAL is 11-3 (+8.25 units) against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-175 at WSH)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Tue 5/7-Thu 5/9
Trend: Colorado is 4-17 (19%, -10.73 units) in their last 21 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -51.1%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+142 vs SF)
Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Tue 5/7-Wed 5/8
Trend: Under the total is 12-0 (100%, +12 units) in the last 12 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total in BAL-WSH (o/u at 9)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 5/10)
