The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-15 (-11.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. PIT) 

Trend: CLE is 16-4 (+12.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-115 at KC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 165 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/1 and these teams are 94-71 for +10.4 units (6.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-155 at OAK)

ATL momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 20-12 (62.5%) +7.90 units, ROI: 24.7%     
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-360 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 9)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–   Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-325 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs MIN), CLEVELAND (-115 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-325 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-355 vs. COL) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 9) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 105-59 for -26.27 units and an ROI of -16%.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-355 vs. COL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/2, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 94-36 for +1.29 units.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-325 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is 63-37 since opening day 2024 and has lost -17.96 units, an ROI of -18%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-325 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 307-372 record for -19.04 units (ROI -2.8%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL):CHICAGO CUBS (+102 vs. PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs. AZ), PHILADELPHIA (+102 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 275-292 record for +9.54 units (ROI 1.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+102 vs. PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs. AZ), PHILADELPHIA (+102 at TOR)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 162-199 for -38.11 units (-10.6% ROI). The three-game teams are 79-84 for -4.5 units (-2.8% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MINNESOTA (-105 at TB), FADE LA ANGELS (+154 vs. LAD)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 165 plays on this angle in 2024 through 9/1 and these teams are 94-71 for +10.4 units (6.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-155 at OAK) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1657-1555(51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -197.35units. This represents an ROI of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. STL), BALTIMORE (-325 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-192 at LAA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1568-2006(43.9%) for -179.30 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+114 at NYM), WASHINGTON (-102 at MIA), COLORADO (+285 at ATL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3344-2934(53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -443.05units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. STL), BALTIMORE (-325 vs. CWS), MIAMI (-118 vs. WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-105 vs. AZ), OAKLAND (+130 vs. SEA)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 936-817 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +5.73 units for backers and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. CLE), TORONTO (-112 vs. PHI), LA ANGELS (+160 vs. LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 29-89 skid (-42.21 units, ROI -35.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-122 skid (-44.49 units, ROI: -25.6%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 66-150 (-67.39 units, ROI: -31.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 at BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-175 run (+29.11 units, ROI: 8.3%).
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. CLE) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +285 (+80 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +110 (+27 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +260 (+60 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+16 diff), PHILADELPHIA +102 (+23 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -115 (+17 diff), CLEVELAND -115 (+15 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-MIA OVER 8 (+0.7), BOS-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.7), AZ-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6),

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-OAK UNDER 8 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) WASHINGTON (61-76) at (952) MIAMI (51-86)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-38, -28.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-118 vs. WSH)

(953) COLORADO (51-87) at (954) ATLANTA (74-63)
Trend: COL worse vs. LH starters (13-29, -10.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+280 at ATL)

(957) ST LOUIS (69-69) at (958) MILWAUKEE (81-57)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (37-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(959) ARIZONA (77-61) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (68-70)
Trend: AZ trending Over vs. divisional teams (28-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(961) CHICAGO-AL (31-108) at (962) BALTIMORE (80-59)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. AL Central/West (32-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(963) MINNESOTA (75-62) at (964) TAMPA BAY (67-70)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (20-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (80-58) at (968) TEXAS (65-73)
Trend: NYY not as good vs. LH starters (17-22, -22.49 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at TEX)

(969) SEATTLE (69-69) at (970) OAKLAND (60-78)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (28-41, -21.37 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-155 at OAK)

(971) PHILADELPHIA (81-56) at (972) TORONTO (67-72)
Trend: Over the total is 15-7 when PHI is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(973) BOSTON (70-68) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (74-64)
Trend: BOS worse vs. LH starters (15-23, -11.27 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+114 at NYM)

(975) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-55) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (57-80)
Trend: LAD better vs. LH starters (31-14, +4.06 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at LAA)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) WASHINGTON (61-76) at (952) MIAMI (51-86)
Trend: WSH is 3-9 (-5.96 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-102 at MIA)

Trend: WSH is 10-39 (-27.66 units) vs. Divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-102 at MIA)

(953) COLORADO (51-87) at (954) ATLANTA (74-63)
Trend: COL is 6-16 (-6.06 units) on the road with starter Kyle Freeland in last two seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+280 at ATL)

(955) PITTSBURGH (64-73) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (71-67)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-15 (-11.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+114 vs. PIT)

(957) ST LOUIS (69-69) at (958) MILWAUKEE (81-57)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 19-8 (+4.07 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. STL)

(965) CLEVELAND (79-59) at (966) KANSAS CITY (75-64)
Trend: CLE is 16-4 (+12.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-115 at KC)

(967) NEW YORK-AL (80-58) at (968) TEXAS (65-73)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 19-33 (-17.05 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five  seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+114 vs. NYY)

(971) PHILADELPHIA (81-56) at (972) TORONTO (67-72)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 13-4 (+8.02 units) vs. NL East opponents in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-112 vs PHI)

(973) BOSTON (70-68) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (74-64)
Trend: BOS is 6-18 (-13.90 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+114 at NYM)

(975) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-55) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (57-80)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 9-2 vs. AL teams (+5.64 units) since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at LAA)

Trend: LAA is 0-4 (-4.00 units) vs. LA Dodgers with starter Reid Detmers
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+160 vs. LAD) 

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Mon 9/2-Wed 9/4
Trend: Pittsburgh is 8-18 (30.8%, -7.49 units) in their last 26 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -28.8%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (-135 at CHC)

Series #21:Colorado at Atlanta, Tue 9/3-Thu9/5
Trend: Atlanta has won 14 of the last 17 games against Colorado (82.4%, +7.23 units)
–  The ROI on this trend is42.5%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-360 vs. COL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 20-12 (62.5%) +7.90 units, ROI: 24.7% 
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/3 vs Colorado
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-360 vs. COL)

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