The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Luis Severino is 25-8 (+16.00 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-205 vs CIN) 

Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (81.8%, +6.80 units) in the last 11 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 6.2 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 61.8%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1663-1563 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -204.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-148 vs AZ), MIAMI (+110 vs PHI), TORONTO (+230 at ATL) 

Trend: Joe Musgrove is 8-2 (+6.08 units) in the last 10 games vs. San Francisco
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 282-304 record for +5.67 units (ROI 1.0%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+105 at KC), DETROIT (-108 at OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+136 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (+140 at LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–   Majority number of BETS on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-218 vs. TB) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (-108 at OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-270 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-278 vs. TOR), MILWAUKEE (-285 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 110-60 for -24.17 units and an ROI of -14.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-205 vs. CIN), ATLANTA (-285 vs. TOR) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/7, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 99-38 for -4.61 units (huge losses on 9/4 by LAD and BAL).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-285 vs. COL), BOSTON (-270 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 315-385 record for -22.37 units (ROI -3.2%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (+180 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+105 at KC), LA ANGELS (+145 at TEX), DETROIT (-108 at OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+136 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (+140 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 282-304 record for +5.67 units (ROI 1.0%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+136 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+105 at KC), DETROIT (-108 at OAK), CHICAGO CUBS (+136 vs NYY), CLEVELAND (+140 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 166-206 for -40.94 units (-11.1% ROI). The three-game teams are 81-85 for -3.75 units (-2.3% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (-162 at CHC)
3-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-125 vs. MIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1663-1563 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -204.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-148 vs. AZ), MIAMI (+110 vs. PHI), TORONTO (+230 at ATL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1577-2018 (43.9%) for -178.36 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, COLORADO, SEATTLE, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3355-2947 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -450.65 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, MIAMI, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 486-408 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +24.02 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-125 vs. MIN)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 280-237 (54.2%) for +38.21 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-285 vs. TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 183-121 in their last 304 tries (+22.76 units, ROI: 7.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-205 vs. CIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +170 (+15 diff), COLORADO +230 (+40 diff), TAMPA BAY +180 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +220 (+20 diff), TORONTO +230 (+60 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -130 (+50 diff), HOUSTON -142 (+19 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BAL OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-SD UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), CWS-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), DET-OAK UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) PHILADELPHIA (85-57) at (904) MIAMI (53-89)
Trend: MIA is 12-7 (+6.83 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 vs. PHI)

Trend: MIA is 3-8 (-4.46 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 vs. PHI) 

(905) CINCINNATI (68-75) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (78-64)
Trend: Luis Severino is 25-8 (+16.00 units) against teams with a losing record in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-205 vs CIN) 

(907) COLORADO (53-90) at (908) MILWAUKEE (82-60)
Trend: COL is 6-17 (-7.06 units) on the road with starter Kyle Freeland in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+230 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 6-10 (-10.45 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-285 vs. COL) 

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (70-73) at (910) SAN DIEGO (81-63)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 8-2 (+6.08 units) in the last 10 games vs. San Francisco
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 vs SF) 

(917) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-83) at (918) TEXAS (69-74)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 15-7 (+2.18 units) as a home favorite within line range of -155 to -210 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-175 vs. LAA) 

(923) ARIZONA (79-64) at (924) HOUSTON (77-65)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 2-7 (-9.05 units) at home against NL teams with a winning record in last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-148 vs. AZ)

 (925) SEATTLE (72-71) at (926) ST LOUIS (72-70)
Trend: STL is 2-5 (-4.15 units) vs. AL West teams with starter Miles Mikolas in L5 seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+110 vs. SEA) 

Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Home teams are 16-6 (72.7%, +8.53 units) in the last 22 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 38.8%
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-285 vs. COL) 

Series #23: Toronto at Atlanta, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Atlanta is 2-11 (15.4%, -12.02 units) in the last 13 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -92.5%
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-285 vs. TOR)

Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Fri 9/6-Sun 9/8
Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (81.8%, +6.80 units) in the last 11 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 6.2 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 61.8%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/10)

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