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MLB value plays for Wednesday, June 21
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Cubs vs. Pirates Total 8.5. Greg’s Total: 9.1.
While Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his five starters this season, he appears to be due in for regression. Despite 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings, opponents only have a .217 batting average with just one home run in 28 1/3 innings, all numbers that are drastically different from his career averages. Both bullpens have also struggled. The Cubs are 22nd in the league in bullpen ERA while the Pirates are 24th. The Cubs are also 10th in the league in on-base percentage.
Athletics vs. Guardians (-1.5, +125). Greg’s Run Line: Guardians -1.5, -127.
Many will be caught in the fact that the Athletics have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games on the run line, but the team is still 34-41 on the run line this season with a lineup that ranks last in the league in runs per game. Gavin Williams will make his MLB debut for the Guardians after a stellar season at the minor league level, making 12 starts between AA and AAA with a 2.39 ERA with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that is second in the league in ERA.
Rangers vs. White Sox (-110). Greg’s Line: Rangers -122.
The Rangers lead the league in runs per game and most days have eight of their nine starters in the lineup all carrying a batting average of at least .270. The Rangers face White Sox starter Michael Kopech, who has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts but is due for regression. He has a fielding independent of 5.31 compared to a 3.91 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
