Mets vs. Phillies Prediction
Both NLDS will feature division rivals, as the New York Mets emerged victorious thanks to some ninth inning heroics in Game 3 against the Brewers and their prize was a flight to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies.
The Mets feel like something of a team of destiny with their big push for the postseason and then how Game 3 played out. Pete Alonso, who hadn’t hit a home run since September 19 and was potentially playing his last game as a Met, hit the go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth. The Mets added an insurance run to set up a date with the Phils.
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Philadelphia won on July 5 to improve to 58-30, or 28 games over .500. The Phillies finished 28 games over .500, so they’ve been a .500 team for a long stretch and posted a 33-33 record in the second half, which is hardly befitting of a division champ.
Can they get everything back on track in time to avoid an upset here or will the Mets extend their playoff push at least another round.
Let’s preview this series, the likely pitching matchups, and find some bets.
Mets vs. Phillies NLDS Schedule
Game 1: Saturday October 5, 4:08 p.m. ET (Senga vs. Wheeler)
Game 2: Sunday October 6, 4:08 p.m. ET (Severino vs. Sanchez)
Game 3: Tuesday October 8, TBD (Nola vs. Manaea)
Game 4: Wednesday October 9, TBD (Suarez vs. Quintana) (if necessary)
Game 5: Friday October 11, TBD (Peterson vs. Wheeler) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Mets vs. Phillies
All games on FS1/Fox
Mets vs. Phillies Series Odds
New York Mets +160 // Philadelphia Phillies -185
Over/Under 3.5 Games: -300 // +240
Over/Under 4.5 Games: +165 // -190
Mets vs. Phillies NLDS Preview
The line certainly doesn’t reflect that the Phillies were a .500 team for like 45% of the season. But, this is a really dangerous team on paper in so many ways. Even with Taijuan Walker weighing them down like a heavy anchor, the Phillies starters were eighth in ERA and sixth in FIP. The important thing to remember about the playoffs is that bad pitchers don’t pitch. The Phillies don’t have to use any of the scrubs that they needed to get through 162 games. They’ll rely on the Big Three, or even Big Four, of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez.
Wheeler gets the Game 1 call after posting a 2.57 ERA and a 3.13 FIP. Nola is actually the Game 3 with a 3.57 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Sanchez is the Game 2 guy with a 3.32 ERA and a 3.00 FIP. Suarez had a 3.46 ERA with a 3.37 FIP. Generally speaking, starting pitchers have diminished value in the playoffs because they are pulled earlier to avoid the third time through the order penalty, but the Phillies have a true advantage with their guys. It allows them to avoid exposure in the middle innings with lesser relievers.
The Phillies also bring a top-five lineup by wOBA and top-10 by wRC+ into this series. Even if I cut the sample down to July 9 through the end of the regular season from that aforementioned date where the Phillies hit 28 games over and stayed there, they were fifth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+.
But, if I do the same with the pitching staff from that July 9 date, they rank 22nd in ERA and 17th in FIP. The tough thing is parsing out the problem children in this equation. Many of them either won’t pitch or won’t be used often. Suarez was one of the culprits, but the Phillies may not need to use him if they don’t want to. It may just be a case where the fringe guys on the roster and the fill-ins due to injury that negatively impacted the numbers won’t be around.
The Mets have ridden quite a wave to this point and you have to give them a lot of credit for that. And it hasn’t been luck. This pitching staff was fifth in ERA and second in FIP. The offense was league average in the final month, so I guess that will be the spotlight element of this series.
New York should get good pitching, assuming everything remains status quo in that department. And outside of Phil Maton’s bad inning in Game 2, the Mets did get some pretty great pitching in the Wild Card Round. They’ll need the same here, not only to keep pace with the Phillies pitching staff, but also give their offense a chance.
This is a Mets offense that was a little bit above average as the season played out, but it was Francisco Lindor who carried the offense in the second half. He posted a 164 wRC+ in the second half, meaning he was 64% above league average. Jeff McNeil also had a big second half, but suffered a fractured wrist in early September and is improving, but isn’t ready to come back yet.
So, that leaves the Mets a tad shorthanded on offense, where Mark Vientos and Alonso chip in some power, but also strike out at a very high rate. Because the strikeout environment increases in the playoffs with fewer bad pitchers and more velocity across the board, it is tough to rely on players with big holes in their swings.
I think the Phillies win the series, but I don’t love the price to do so. Phillies -1.5 is +125 to win the series 3-0 or 3-1. I think that’s a pretty reasonable position to take because they’ll likely have a starting pitcher advantage in every game of this series and they can get the necessary length to avoid using too many relievers down the depth chart.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 Games (+125)
