Yankees vs. Dodgers Prediction
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers will play in the 2024 World Series. It would be an understatement to say that this is the best-case scenario for network executives and advertisers, not to mention Commissioner Rob Manfred and his pals. The two biggest TV markets, two teams with bona fide superstars, and a couple of franchises that are rich with compelling storylines.
Despite spending obscene amounts of money in search of a championship, the Dodgers only have the 2020 COVID title, which many repeatedly put an asterisk next to because that was a 60-game season played in something of a bubble. The Yankees haven’t won a title since 2009, as they look for their 28th in franchise history. The Dodgers only have one since 1988 and only seven in franchise history.
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Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton, and even Freddie Freeman, despite the ankle injury, are all players that not only have star appeal in the U.S., but also globally. This is a mammoth series in so many ways, and it has the chance to live up to the billing. These were the best teams in each respective league and now they’ll play for the grand prize.
Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series Schedule
Game 1: Friday October 25, 8:08 p.m. ET (Cole vs. Flaherty)
Game 2: Saturday October 26, 8:08 p.m. ET (Rodon vs. Yamamoto)
Game 3: Monday October 28, 8:08 p.m. ET (Buehler vs. Schmidt)
Game 4: Tuesday October 29, 8:08 p.m. ET (Bullpen vs. Gil)
Game 5: Wednesday October 30, 8:08 p.m. ET (Yamamoto vs. Cole) (if necessary)
Game 6: Friday November 1, 8:08 p.m. ET (Rodon vs. Flaherty) (if necessary)
Game 7: Saturday November 2, 8:08 p.m. ET (Schmidt vs. Buehler) (if necessary)
(all pitching matchups are projected by me until otherwise announced)
How To Watch Yankees vs. Dodgers
All games on Fox
Yankees vs. Dodgers Series Odds
New York Yankees +105 // Los Angeles Dodgers -125
Over/Under 4.5 Games: -800 // +600
Over/Under 5.5 Games: -185 // +155
Over/Under 6.5 Games: +195 // -240
All odds as of 10/21, 8:30 a.m. PT
Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series Preview
Offense
When you have hitters like Judge, Soto, Stanton, Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, the pre-series discourse will focus a lot on offense. We’re talking about some generational hitters and likely six Hall of Famers. It is hard to argue that the bats are a starting point, mostly because LA’s sluggers need to really shine in order to overshadow the pitching shortcomings.
The Dodgers batted .268/.395/.459 in the series against the Mets. They struck out 51 times and drew 42 walks while hitting 11 homers and scoring 46 runs. Over the six-game series, the Dodgers averaged 7.7 runs per game and 9.25 runs per game in their four wins. And it was a series in which Freeman batted .167/.211/.167 and only played in four games because of his ankle injury.
Perhaps the extra few days before Game 1 will help him heal a little bit more, but given that he’s been more or less a zero for the Dodgers, what they’ve done aside from him has been thoroughly impressive, especially getting 11 RBI from Trade Deadline acquisition Tommy Edman against the Mets. (As an aside, the Dodgers also got Michael Kopech in that three-team deal)
For their part, the Yankees hit .250/.338/.470 against the Guardians in the ALCS and got a pretty pedestrian performance from Aaron Judge outside of two really big swings, one in a losing effort. But, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton shined with seven homers and drove in 13 of the team’s 29 runs. While Soto and Stanton had the highlight-reel hits, we can’t discount what Gleyber Torres did by racking up eight hits in the series in 22 at bats to put pressure on Cleveland pitchers.
Pitching
Cleveland pitchers did not perform well in the ALCS. For stretches, they did, but the team got two good starts in five games and a gassed bullpen struggled in the late innings. The Yankees have the opportunity to do the same or more to the Dodgers. Depleted doesn’t even begin to describe what LA has right now. The Dodgers, much like the Guardians, don’t have a fourth starter. And they have a very iffy third starter in Walker Buehler. And even second starter given what Jack Flaherty did in Game 5 with decreased velocity. And even first starter with a 5.11 ERA and a 4.71 FIP for Yamamoto in his three postseason starts.
By destroying opposing pitching, the Dodgers have been able to overcome. Collectively, Dodgers pitchers have a 4.36 ERA in 11 games and have surrendered 13 homers. The bullpen has given up six of those in a postseason-high 57 innings, but they have a 3.16 ERA and have held the opposition to a .237 BA.
The Yankees pen has only worked 38.2 innings across nine games with a 2.56 ERA and a reliever has been the pitcher of record in five of the seven wins. Opponents have a .206 BA against the pen, but it is worth noting that Yankees relievers have walked 20 batters against Royals and Guardians lineups that do not walk much at all.
Both the Dodgers and Yankees draw a ton of walks, so there will be a lot of pressure on the hurlers to control their pitches in this series.
New York’s rotation owns a 3.89 ERA over nine starts with a 43/13 K/BB ratio in 44 innings and Gil mostly threw the ball well in Game 4 against Cleveland, so he’s a much more viable option in the middle games of this series. So is Clarke Schmidt. With the off day structure and the injury risks for the Dodgers arms, I do not anticipate that LA will go that route. The Yankees absolutely could, especially with Cole. Could that provide an advantage for New York? I think they’re more than content to run out Schmidt and Gil, especially at home, but we’ll have to see as the series gets closer to crunch time with those important middle games.
Dodgers starters collectively own a 6.08 ERA in 11 games and only have 27 strikeouts in 40 innings. As mentioned, Flaherty’s fastball velo was down a couple ticks in Game 5 and he got rocked, giving up eight runs in three innings with four walks, no strikeouts, and 10 hard-hit balls against. Maybe he’ll prefer the relative warmth of LA more in either Game 1 or Game 2, but that is a huge red flag.
Defense and Baserunning
The Yankees were a bit better defensively, ranking 11th in Outs Above Average at +9, while the Dodgers were 18th at -1. In terms of catcher framing, Austin Wells was +12 in framing runs, while Will Smith was dead last at -9 among qualified catchers (at least six called pitches per team game).
In a series where both teams have tremendously disciplined lineups, Wells’ defense may be a game-changer. For what it’s worth, Yankees backup catcher Jose Trevino was fourth behind Wells at +10. Austin Barnes was a much better receiver for the Dodgers, but Smith is the better hitter, so he’s played throughout the postseason.
Yankees relievers throw a ton of changeups. In fact, it’s about all Tommy Kahnle throws and Luke Weaver throws a ton as well. The Dodgers were second in SLG, third in batting average, and first in wOBA against changeups per Statcast. That could lead to some interesting late-inning heroics in this series.
The Dodgers are vastly superior on the bases. Not only did they steal 48 more bases, but they had a 10.7 BsR, which is FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, that ranked fourth. The Yankees had a -16.9 that was easily dead last in the league.
Prediction
Given the current market price, I think the Yankees are the side at +105. They might actually have the offense to be able to stack up against the Dodgers and clearly have a starting pitcher advantage. I do think the stronger catcher defense is a factor in this series, as the Yankees led baseball with a 10.8% BB% and the Dodgers were third at 9.6%. Both teams had nearly identical K%. The bullpens feel like a wash for the most part.
This is not a super strong opinion by me. Most playoff series come down to variance with runners in scoring position. For example, Cleveland was 9-for-47 with RISP in the ALCS, as three of those games could have gone either way. The Yankees were only 7-for-38 themselves.
In the NLCS, the Dodgers were 22-for-72 (.306). Yes, they had 72 AB with RISP in a six-game series. The Yankees will have to try and avoid providing that many run-scoring opportunities and capitalize on more of their own. But, given the starting pitcher edge for the Yankees, I lean their way as an underdog.
