Paul Skenes MLB debut
The most anticipated pitching debut since Stephen Strasburg in 2010 has arrived, as Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates will make his first MLB start on Saturday May 11 against the Chicago Cubs. The first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft actually started his collegiate career with two seasons at Air Force, but went 13-2 with a 1.69 ERA and struck out 209 batters in 122.2 innings at LSU over one season to rocket up draft boards.
The 6-foot-6 right-hander brings an impressive arsenal to the big leagues and some dominant minor league stats, but how will his MLB debut go and what about the rest of the season?
Top MLB Resources:
Paul Skenes stats
Along with those eye-popping college numbers, Skenes has worked 34 minor league innings and allowed a total of eight runs (seven earned) with 55 strikeouts against 10 walks. He has a 1.85 ERA across four minor league levels, with the bulk of his work coming at Triple-A Indianapolis this season with a 0.99 ERA over 27.1 innings and 45 strikeouts against eight walks.
Skenes was actually a two-way player at Air Force before shifting exclusively to the pitching rubber. He actually batted .367/.453/.669 at Air Force, so he was a pretty good hitter as well.
His average fastball velocity sits at 99 mph and he’s topped out at 102 this season. Not only is the fastball electric, but his slider is a true money-maker of a pitch. If hitters are somehow able to fight off those two pitches, he throws a “changeup” in the low 90s with a two-seam/splitter hybrid grip to add something with downward movement to his east-west slider and explosive fastball.
Basically, his stuff is Major League-ready.
Paul Skenes vs. the Cubs
Chicago Cubs -110 // Pittsburgh Pirates -110
Total: 7.5 (+100/-120)
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish (2:45 p.m. PT on 5/10)
In Skenes’ MLB debut, he draws a Cubs lineup that grades as a top-five offense against lefties by wRC+, but a below average offense against righties. Chicago is only batting in the .220s against righties and, while they’ve drawn a lot of walks, they have one of the 10 worst strikeout rates in that split.
The right-handed Skenes is more than just a one-trick pony with the fastball, but that level of velocity is obviously a weapon for any hurler, let alone one with excellent command of the pitch.
Using 97 mph or higher as a parameter (because few guys touch 100 like Skenes does), the Cubs had the sixth-highest Whiff% (Swinging Strikes / Swings) at 29.6% entering Friday’s game. They had actually seen the third-highest number of 97+ mph pitches and just saw some more of them against Jared Jones, Pittsburgh’s other flame-throwing rookie. Chicago is top five in slugging percentage on high-velo pitches like that, so they do hit mistakes, but will also swing through a lot of pitches.
Skenes certainly has the ability to dominate any lineup. We can’t really quantify the jitters of making his first MLB start and showers are also in the forecast, so we could see a delayed warmup, a shortened start, or maybe some grip issues. No matter what happens here, don’t read too much into it, as Skenes will neither be a bust or a Hall of Famer off of one outing.
Skenes did pitch into the fifth in each of his last three minor league starts and actually completed six innings in one of them, so we’ll see what kind of leash he’s on. Skenes threw 66 pitches in his final minor league start and 75 in the start prior to that, so I would anticipate 75-80 pitches is the most we’ll get in his debut and maybe going forward.
But, the hype train is real, as Skenes is basically in a coin flip at -110 against a very accomplished MLB pitcher in Justin Steele.
Paul Skenes Rest of 2024
An unannounced innings restriction is absolutely in play for Skenes, who only threw 26.2 innings in his first year at Air Force and 85.2 innings in his second season. He played in the Cape Cod League in 2021 and added eight innings, so we’re talking about a guy who maxed out at 129.1 innings in 2023 between LSU and five short starts for the Pirates’ minor league affiliates.
You don’t take unnecessary risks with an arm like this. More often than not, Skenes should look good against MLB hitting. Pitch efficiency may be an issue at times, as some of the fastballs and sliders that minor leaguers swung through will be fouled off by the best hitters in the world. That could run up some pitch counts and lead to shorter starts, especially since he won’t be throwing 100 pitches regularly.
Paul Skenes Odds
DraftKings Sportsbook has a separate “Skenes Specials” section with a strikeout prop of Over/Under 109.5 and a Pitcher Wins prop at Over/Under 5.5.
These are tough to bet into for a few reasons. The top 10 in average four-seam fastball velocity (per Sports Info Solutions) from 2023 have had a rough go this year. Nine of those 10 starters are on the IL and Hunter Greene just experienced a sizable velocity drop in his last start. Fingers crossed that Skenes stays healthy. The Pirates will do everything they can to ensure that he does.
Also, pitchers need to go at least five innings to secure a win. If we assume Skenes to be around 75-80 pitches per start, that doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error with an average of 15-16 pitches per frame. Strikeouts can and will run up pitch counts and, as I said, he’ll experience more foul balls at the MLB level. Not to mention, the Pirates have one of the worst offenses in baseball and you’d be asking the bullpen to do some heavy lifting once Skenes exits the game.
Skenes is also +850 to be the NL Rookie of the Year and even +10000 to win the NL Cy Young per DraftKings at time of publish. Expect the ROY odds to shorten very quickly with his call-up and any success.
All in all, just enjoy it. Just enjoy that the game has an elite arm making his debut, as the game is always better for having the best players on the field.
