The MLB All Star Break continues for another 48-hours before returning to action on Friday. Many bettors consider this week to be “Gambler’s Vacation,” affording bettors a rare opportunity to take a few days off and recharge their batteries. Instead of ignoring baseball completely for another two days, let’s make the most of this break and check out the MLB Awards Market to see where smart money is leaning for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year at the unofficial halfway point. All odds and bet splits come from BetMGM.
AL MVP: Favorite Aaron Judge -350
Aaron Judge has a strangehold on the award at this point, sitting at -350. Judge is receiving 6.2% of bets but 20.1% of dollars, raking in the highest handle percentage of any player. Judge plays for one of the best teams in baseball and is currently ranked 1st in several offensive categories (.306, 34 homers and 85 RBIs). If Judge stays healthy, he is likely to run away with the award. However, the price is so high currently that bettors must risk big juice in order to produce a lesser payout. In other words, there isn’t much value at the current price. If Judge were to slip in performance or get hurt, bettors would be smart to keep an eye on Gunnar Henderson (+240). The Orioles shortshop has the 2nd best odds to win MVP. He is receiving 11.6% of bets and 12.1% of money. The next closest competitors are Juan Soto (+1800) and Bobby Witt Jr (+2000).
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AL Cy Young: Favorite Tarik Skubal -150
Skubal is currently the favorite at a reasonable chalk price of -150. The Tigers’ lefty is receiving 16.4% of bets and 19.4% of money, the largest handle share of any pitcher. Despite playing for a sub .500 team, Skubal’s numbers are impressive (10-3, 2.41 ERA). The next closest competitor is Orioles’ righty Corbin Burnes (+325). Burnes plays for one of the best teams in baseball and is currently receiving a notable bet split (11.4% bets but 17.1% money). Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.43 ERA. It’s largely a two-pitcher race between Skubal and Burnes, as the nest closest odds belong to Seth Lugo and Logan Gilbert, who are both +1200. For bettors, you can look at the race one of two ways: it’s Skubal’s award to win and laying -150 isn’t that expensive so there might still be value, or grab the plus money with Burnes now as he pitches for a contender, has a track record of making 30+ starts and his numbers are likely to improve as the season progresses.
AL Rookie of the Year: Favorite Wyatt Langford +120
We’ve seen several different players favored to win this award at various points in the unofficial first half. Rangers’ outfielder Evan Carter and Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday opened as co-favorites (+275) but have since fallen off greatly. Carter is now +150000 and Holliday is now +20000. As it stands now, Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford is the new favorite at +120. Langford is receiving 20.6% of bets and 27.7% of money, the most tickets and dollars of any player. Langford is hitting .254 with 5 homers and 40 RBIs. Yankees’ starting pitcher Luis Gil has the second best odds at +200, receiving 3.9% of bets and 10% of dollars. Gil is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA but has struggled over the last month and might be hurt by a possible innings limit later in the year. As of now, it’s hard to argue with grabbing the +120 with Langford. However, if you’re looking for a value play, Red Sox infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (+1100) might be worst investing in. His bet splits aren’t very appealing (8.2% of bets and only 4.3% of dollars), but he plays great defense at multiple positions and has impressive stats (.246, 11 homers and 52 RBIs). Rafaela ranks 2nd in rookie homers and first in RBIs.
NL MVP: Favorite Shohei Ohtani -375
Much like the AL MVP, the NL MVP looks all but wrapped up (barring an injury), as Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani sits at -375. Ohtani is receiving 12.2% of bets and 23.6% of dollars, the highest handle of any player. Ohtani is hitting .316 with 29 homers and 69 RBIs. While Ohtani may very well run away with this award, the current price doesn’t offer much value as it is too expensive to risk for many bettors. The next best odds are Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (+600). Harper is receiving 14.5% of bets but only 11.4% of dollars. He is hitting .301 with 21 homers and 61 RBIs. Mookie Betts, once the favorite, is off the board as he remains sidelined with an injury.
NL Cy Young: Favorite Chris Sale +115
Those holding a preseason Chris Sale Cy Young ticket are ecstatic right now, as the lefty opened +6600 and is now the favorite at +115. Sale is receiving 4.4% of bets and 6.2% of dollars, a modest percentage in both departments. Sale is 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA. However, injuries have long been an issue for Sale, which provides an opportunity for bettors to target someone else at plus money. The next best odds behind Sale belong to Zack Wheeler (+155). The Phillies ace is receiving 6.8% of bets and 11.5% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Wheeler is 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Those looking for a larger award payout might still see value on Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes (+400). Skenes was +2500 just a week ago and his moved all the way to +400. He is receiving 14.5% of tickets and 20.3% of dollars, the highest percentage in both departments. Skenes is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and just started the All Star Game. One possible hiccup with betting Skenes depends on whether the Pirates shut him down early due to an innings limit.
NL Rookie of the Year: Favorite Paul Skenes -1200
Skenes has lived up the hype (and then some). Sitting at 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, the former number one overall pick from 2023 has been nothing short of dominant since entering the Pirates rotation. However, those looking to bet on him to win Rookie of the Year have missed the boat as the price is far too high to lay at this point. Skenes is receiving 21.1% of bets and 25.6% of dollars, the highest percentage in both categories. The next closest odds belong to Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill (+500), who is receiving 10.5% of bets and 14.3% of dollars. Merrill is hitting .278 with 12 homers and 46 RBIs.
