Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-110, 7)
The Royals (61-49) took last night’s series opener 7-1, cruising as -145 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals hand the ball to lefty Cole Ragans (7-7, 3.37 ERA) and the Tigers (52-58) counter with fellow southpaw Tarik Skubal (12-3, 2.35 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Royals as a dog value bet, dropping Kansas City down from +110 to +100. The Royals are receiving 56% of moneyline bets, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Kansas City has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Royals have a big edge at the plate, hitting .252 with 519 runs scored compared to the Tigers hitting .230 with 460 runs scored. Kansas City is hitting .263 against lefties this season, 5th best in MLB. Detroit is hitting .239 against lefties, ranking 22nd. The Royals are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .293. The Tigers are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .191. Kansas City is 5-2 against the Detroit this season.
7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-110, 9) at Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians (66-42) won last night’s series opener 10-3, easily cashing as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (65-45) start righty Dean Kremer (4-7, 4.20 ERA) and the Guardians turn to fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (3-9, 5.68 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -120 road favorite and Cleveland a +110 home dog. The public is all over the Orioles to get back on track laying short chalk. However, despite receiving 71% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Baltimore fall from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Cleveland as the line is moving in their favor (+110 to +100) despite being the unpopular side receiving only 29% of bets. The Guardians have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Guardians are 34-15 at home this season, the best home record in MLB. Cleveland is 3-1 against Baltimore this season. The Guardians have the far better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 2.47 (best in MLB) compared to 3.94 for the Orioles. Over the past 10 games, Cleveland’s overall team ERA is 3.34 compared to 5.26 for Baltimore.
8:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (-155, 7.5)
This is the first game of a three-game series. The Rays (55-53) just split a two-game set against the Marlins, losing Wednesday’s series finale 6-2 as -210 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Astros (56-52) just dropped two of three against the Pirates but avoided the sweep with a 5-4 win in Wednesday’s series finale, taking care of business as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Shane Baz (0-1, 3.66 ERA) and the Astros tap newly acquired lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-9, 4.75 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +125 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Astros, steaming Houston up from -140 to -155. The Astros are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both public and sharp support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their direction. Houston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. The Astros have additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is favored. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 515-328 (61%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Houston also has an edge at the plate, hitting .261 with 123 homers and 502 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay hitting .234 with only 102 homers and 432 runs scored.
