Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:07 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-150, 9)
The Athletics (48-68) just took two of three against the White Sox, winning Wednesday’s series finale 3-2 as -185 home favorites. Similarly, the Blue Jays (53-62) just took two of three against the Orioles, winning 7-6 yesterday as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics start righty Mitch Spence (7-7, 4.40 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow righty Jose Berrios (9-9, 4.11 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -135 home favorite and Oakland a +120 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -135 to -150. Toronto is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Blue Jays have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Toronto has the superior offense, hitting .240 with 478 runs scored compared to Oakland hitting .230 with 471 runs scored. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 221-152 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Spence has a 5.22 ERA on the road compared to 3.86 at home. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home compared to 5.29 on the road. The Blue Jays are hitting .261 over their last ten games. The Athletics are hitting .213 over their last ten games. Oakland is 19-38 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB behind the White Sox and Rockies.
7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (-135, 10)
The Astros (59-55) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning Wednesday’s series finale 6-4 as -130 road favorites. Similarly, the Red Sox (61-52) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to earn the sweep by losing Wednesday’s series finale 8-4 as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Astros hand the ball to righty Ronel Blanco (9-6, 2.98 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow righty Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.09 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -115 home favorite and Houston a -105 road dog. Sharps have jumped on Boston laying short chalk at home, steaming the Red Sox up from -115 to -135. The Red Sox are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a big 20-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 373-253 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 522-335 (61%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Boston has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Red Sox have the better bets, hitting .262 with 144 homers and 563 runs scored compared to the Astros hitting .259 with 128 homers and 519 runs scored. Boston is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .300. Houston is 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .223.
10:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners (-130, 8)
The Mets (61-54) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-1 as -150 road favorites. On the other hand, the Mariners (60-56) just dropped two of three against the Tigers but avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mets go with lefty Jose Quintana (6-7, 3.95 ERA) and the Mariners tap righty Bryce Miller (8-7, 3.62 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -115 home favorite and New York a -105 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Seattle rise from -115 to -130. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based upon the 15-cent adjustment that pro money has laid the modest chalk with Seattle at home. The Mariners are receiving 49% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Quintana has a 4.58 ERA on the road compared to 3.38 at home. Miller has a 2.27 ERA at home compared to 5.37 on the road.
