Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-150, 8) at Detroit Tigers
The Astros (13-24) just dropped two of three against the Yankees but avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win in Thursday’s series finale, cashing as +125 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (19-18) just dropped two of three against the Guardians, losing Wednesday’s finale 5-4 in extra innings as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Astros hand the ball to lefty Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.97 ERA) and the Tigers send out righty Casey Mize (1-1, 3.98 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 road favorite and Detroit a +120 home dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Houston, driving the Astros up from -135 to -150. Houston is receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move. The Astros will lean on their bats, hitting .258 vs .227 for the Tigers. Road favorites are 114-77 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Houston also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-190, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
The Phillies (26-12) are 18-4 over their last 22 games and just split a two-game series against the Blue Jays, losing Wednesday’s series finale 5-3 as -165 home favorites. On the flip side, the Marlins (10-29) are 4-12 over their 16 games and just got swept by the Dodgers, losing Wednesday’s series finale 3-1 as +220 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies start lefty Ranger Suarez (6-0, 1.72 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Trevor Rogers (0-5, 6.15 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -170 road favorite and Miami a +145 home dog. Sharps aren’t outsmarting themselves and have laid the wood with the red-hot Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -170 to -190. The Phillies are receiving 95% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, indicating massive one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Phillies have the far better offense, hitting .257 with 46 homers and 191 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .225 with 31 homers and 143 runs scored. Road favorites off a loss, like the Phillies here, are 48-27 (64%) with a 12% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 467-283 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Philadelphia is 11-5 on the road this season. Miami is 5-15 at home.
9:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (-155, 7.5)
The Athletics (18-21) just dropped three of four against the Rangers, losing the series finale 12-11 as +125 home dogs. Similarly, the Mariners (20-18) just lost three of four against the Twins, getting crushed 11-1 yesterday as +100 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics start Pete Blackburn (3-1, 3.00 ERA) and the Mariners trot out fellow righty Bryan Woo, who is making his 2024 debut after going 4-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 2023. This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 home favorite and Oakland a +120 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -140 to -155. Seattle is receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating support from both sharps and the betting public. Favorites off a loss who have a winning record, like Seattle here, are 70-35 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Seattle also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Seattle is +2 in run differential. Oakland is -28. The Mariners also have the better bullpen (team ERA 2.79 vs 3.47).
