Today a new week begins with an 11-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
6:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Phillies (14-8) have won six straight games and just swept the White Sox, winning Sunday’s series finale 8-2 as -290 home favorites. Similarly, the Reds (12-9) just swept the Angels, winning 3-0 on Sunday as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies start lefty Ranger Suarez (3-0, 1.73 ERA) and the Reds counter with righty Hunter Greene (0-1, 4.35 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Phillies at an attractive cheap price, steaming Philadelphia up from -110 to -120. The Phillies are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Phillies have the better bats (hitting .247 vs .225) and the betting pitching staff (team ERA 3.39 vs 3.92). Road favorites, like the Phillies here, are 68-36 (65%) this season with a 15% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 81-62 (57%) with a 5% ROI. The Phillies also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
7:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Blue Jays (12-10) are 6-2 over their last eight games and just took two of three against the Padres, although Toronto lost Sunday’s series finale 6-3 as -105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Royals (13-9) just dropped two of three against the Orioles, losing 5-0 yesterday as a -105 home dog. In tonight’s series opener, Toronto hands the ball to lefty Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) and Kansas City goes with righty Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a -110 home favorite and the Blue Jays a +100 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen Toronto move from +100 to -115. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So we know, based on the steam move, that pro money is siding with the Blue Jays. Favorites off a loss, like Toronto here, are 85-51 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Blue Jays also have value as a road favorite (68-36, 65%, 15% ROI) and a sweet spot short road favorite -130 or less (81-62, 57%, 5% ROI). Sharps also hammered the over, raising the total from 8 to 9. The over is receiving 52% of bets and 67% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for high 60s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Kauffman Stadium.
9:38 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (-110, 8.5)
The Orioles (14-7) are 6-1 over their last seven games and just took two of three against the Royals, winning 5-0 on Sunday as -110 road favorites. Conversely, the Angels (9-13) have dropped four straight and just got swept by the Reds, losing 3-0 yesterday as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles start righty Albert Suarez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Angels tap lefty Reid Detmers (3-0, 1.19 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 home favorite and Baltimore a +105 road dog. Wiseguys have jumped on the Orioles as a cheap dog, steaming Baltimore from +105 to -110. In other words, smart Orioles money has moved this game to a pick’em after opening with the Angeles as a short favorite. Baltimore is receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. The Orioles have the better offense, hitting .265 with 33 homers and 122 runs while the Angels are hitting .237 with 22 homers and 92 runs. Baltimore is 45-35 (56%) with a 24% ROI as a dog since the start of last season, the best “dog” team in MLB. The Orioles are 6-3 on the road. The Angels are 2-4 at home. Baltimore is +29 in run differential. Los Angeles is -17. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. Some shops are even inching up to 9. The over is receiving 63% of bets and 77% of dollars, a sharp bet split signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. The Orioles are 13-6-2 to the over, the 3rd best over team in MLB.
