Today a new week begins with a 12-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9)
The Yankees (19-10) just took two of three against the Brewers, crushing Milwaukee 15-5 as -135 road favorites in Sunday’s Interleague series finale. On the other hand, the Orioles (17-10) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, losing the series finale 7-6 yesterday as -200 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, New York starts righty Clarke Schmidt (2-0, 3.55 ERA) and Baltimore sends out fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -135 home favorite and the Yankees a +115 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Bronx Bombers getting plus money, dropping New York from +115 to +100. New York is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also a heavy wave of sharp money based on the 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Yankees have value as a divisional dog and correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the built in familiarity and more expected runs scored leading the more variance and upset opportunities. The Yankees have the better bullpen as well (team ERA 2.70 vs 4.02). Pros are also leaning toward a higher scoring game, as several shops opened with a total if 8.5 and have been bet up to 9. The over is receiving 67% of bets but 85% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Baltimore is 16-9-2 (64%) to the over this season, the second best over team in MLB trailing only the Brewers.
6:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-130, 8)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Nationals (13-14) have taken the first three games, winning 12-9 on Sunday as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, the Nats start righty Jake Irvin (1-2, 3.55 ERA) and the Marlins (6-23) go with lefty Trevor Rogers (0-3, 4.10 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -150 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Wiseguys are riding the hot hand and have gotten down hard on the Nats to complete the sweep, steaming Washington down from +135 to +115. The Nats are receiving 59% of moneyline bets but 75% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split along with a 20-cent steam move.. Washington has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Nats have the better bats (hitting .238 vs .224 ) and the better bullpen (ERA 3.79 vs 5.10). Washington is 9-6 on the road. Miami is just 2-14 at home. The Nats are 12-14 (46%) as a dog with a 22% ROI. The Marlins are 0-9 as a favorite.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-150, 7.5)
The Cubs (17-11) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, losing 5-4 on Sunday Night Baseball as +130 road dogs. Similarly, the Mets (14-13) just lost two of three against the Cardinals but managed to win yesterday’s series finale 4-2 in 11-innings, cashing as -140 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Chicago starts righty Jameson Taillon (2-0, 1.69 ERA) and New York counters with fellow righty Luis Severino (2-2, 2.67 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -125 home favorite and the Cubs a +115 road dog. The public is leaning toward the Cubs, who have the better record and are getting plus-money. However, despite 59% of bets taking Chicago we’ve actually seen this line move further toward New York (-125 to -150). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead backing the unpopular favorite. New York has value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit the better team who is expected to win. The Cubs are in a classic fade spot, as they played the late Sunday Night Baseball game last night in Boston and now must turn around and face the Mets, who played a home day game yesterday. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 49% of bets but 79% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The under is 9-6 (60%) at Citi Field this season and 56-34 (62%) since the start of last season, the second best under park over that time span trailing only Oracle Park.
