Today a new week begins with an 11-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 8.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Cardinals (60-58) just split a two-game series against the Royals, losing Saturday’s series finale 8-3 as +105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Reds (57-61) just dropped two of three against the Brewers but avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win yesterday as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Sonny Gray (11-6, 3.65 ERA) and the Reds counter with lefty Andrew Abbott (9-9, 3.70 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -125 road favorite and Cincinnati a +115 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals laying short road chalk, steaming St. Louis up from -125 to -135. The Cardinals are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 381-261 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. Road favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 65-37 (64%) with a 7% ROI. St. Louis enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Cardinals were off yesterday while the Reds played in Milwaukee. St. Louis has the better bats, hitting .247 compared to .230 for Cincinnati. Gray has a 2.57 ERA in two August starts, allowing four earned runs in 14 innings pitched. Abbott has a 7.71 ERA in two August starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched. The Reds are 0-4 in Abbott’s last four starts.
6:50 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-130, 7.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Astros (62-55) just swept the Red Sox, cruising 10-2 yesterday as -145 road favorites. Conversely, the Rays (59-58) just dropped two of three against the Orioles but avoided the sweep with a 2-1 win yesterday as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Astros send out lefty Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.46 ERA) and the Rays go with righty Taj Bradley (6-6, 3.07 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -115 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Astros laying short road chalk, steaming Houston up from -115 to -130. The Astros are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their direction. Non-division road favorites off a win are 138-99 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 178-142 (56%) with a 4% ROI. Houston has the superior offense, hitting .262 with 137 homers and 542 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay hitting .234 with 110 homers and 460 runs scored. The Astros have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Houston is 8-0 in Valdez’s last eight starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Bradley has an 8.80 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-190, 8)
The Pirates (56-61) just got swept by the Dodgers, losing 6-5 yesterday as +220 road dogs. On the flip side, the Padres (66-53) just took two of three against the Marlins but failed to complete the sweep by losing 7-6 yesterday as -200 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates turn to lefty Marco Gonzales (1-1, 4.54 ERA) and the Padres send out righty Joe Musgrove (3-4, 5.66 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -165 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and gotten down hard on San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -165 to -190. San Diego is receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Home favorites off a loss with a winning record against teams with a losing record who missed the playoffs the previous year are 55-29 (66%) with a 3% ROI this season. San Diego is 7-2 (78%) with a 33% ROI as a favorite in August, the best chalk record in MLB. The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), as well as betting system value as a non-division favorite. San Diego has the far better offense, hitting .266 with 136 homers and 569 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .235 with only 117 homers and 493 runs scored. The Padres are 3-0 against the Pirates this season. San Diego is 82 over their last ten games, hitting .287 with a 3.33 ERA. Pittsburgh is 1-9 over their last ten games, hitting .263 with a 5.92 ERA.
