Today a new week begins with a 12-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-120, 7) at Detroit Tigers
The Guardians (63-42) just took two of three against the Phillies, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (52-55) just dropped two of three against the Twins, falling 5-0 yesterday as +130 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Guardians hand the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (8-4, 3.50 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (7-5, 2.95 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -110 road favorite and Detroit a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk on the road, steaming Cleveland up from -110 to -120. The Guardians are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, signaling a combination of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 153-128 (54%) with a 2% ROI this season. Cleveland is 45-21 (68%) with a 19% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in baseball. The Guardians have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is favored to win. Bibee has a 3.00 ERA on the road compared to 3.99 at home. Flaherty has a 3.50 ERA at home compared to 2.57 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at New York Mets (-115, 8.5)
The Twins (58-46) just took two of three against the Tigers, winning 5-0 yesterday as -140 road favorites. Conversely, the Mets (55-50) just split a four-game series against the Braves, losing 9-2 yesterday as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Twins tap righty Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) and the Mets send out lefty Jose Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Minnesota +105 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Mets at home. However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets we’ve seen New York fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving in their favor (+105 to -105) despite receiving a minority of bets. The Twins are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent adjustment in their direction. The Twins are 12-5 in Woods Richardson’s 17 starts this season. He has a 2.86 ERA in four July starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. Minnesota is hitting .277 against lefties this season, ranking 1st in MLB against southpaws.
8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-135, 7.5) at Houston Astros
The Pirates (53-52) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with a 6-5 in extra innings yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Astros (55-50) just took two of three against the Dodgers but failed to earn the sweep by losing yesterday’s series finale 6-2 as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Pirates start rookie phenom Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA) and the Astros go with fellow righty Jake Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -155 road favorite and Houston a +140 home dog. The public is all aboard the Skenes bandwagon and currently 72% of moneyline bets are laying the chalk with the Pirates. However, despite receiving this lopsided support we’ve seen Pittsburgh fall from -155 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Astros (+140 to +115) as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Houston has a big edge at the plate, hitting .262 with 492 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .232 with 436 runs scored. The Astros are 8-7 (53%) with a 12% ROI as a dog against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season. Houston is hitting .262 against righties, 2nd best in MLB. Pittsburgh is hitting .227 against righties, ranking 26th.
