Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 9-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-185, 9.5)
The Padres (37-38) just got swept by the Mets, losing Sunday’s series finale 11-6 as -140 road favorites. Similarly, the Phillies (47-24) just dropped two of three against the Orioles, losing 8-3 yesterday as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Randy Vasquez (1-3, 4.93 ERA) and the Phillies counter with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (3-3, 3.07 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 home favorite and San Diego a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -165 to -185. The Phillies are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss with a winning record playing a team below .500 are 69-37 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Phillies are 41-18 (70%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite, the 4th-best chalk team in MLB. Philadelphia is 18-3 (86%) with a 33% ROI at home against teams below .500. The Phillies are 3-0 against the Padres this season. Sanchez has a 1.95 ERA at home compared to 4.32 on the road. Vasquez has a 5.50 ERA on the road compared to 4.43 at home. The Padres are hitting .227 against lefties this season, ranking 25th in MLB.
7:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-130, 7.5)
The Red Sox (37-35) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning last night’s series finale 9-3 as +125 home dogs. Similarly, the Blue Jays (35-36) just won two of three against the Guardians, winning 7-6 yesterday as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox send out righty Nick Pivetta (3-4, 3.88 ERA) and the Blue Jays go with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 3.26 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -120 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen Toronto move from -120 to -130. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, we know based on the 10-cent steam move that sharps have laid the modest chalk with Toronto at home. The Blue Jays have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. This is also a fade/follow schedule spot in favor of the Blue Jays, who just played a series at home and don’t have to travel while Boston just played the Yankees at Fenway on Sunday Night Baseball and must now travel on short rest north of the border. The Blue Jays are 28-18 (61%) with a 4% ROI as a favorite this season.
8:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-115, 10)
The Giants (35-37) just dropped two of three against the Angels but avoided the sweep with a 13-6 win in yesterday’s series finale, taking care of business as -165 home favorites. Similarly, the Cubs (34-38) just lost two of three against the Cardinals, losing 2-1 yesterday as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Giants tap righty Jordan Hicks (4-3, 3.01 ERA) and the Cubs rebuttal with fellow righty Javier Assad (4-2, 2.81 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with Chicago at home. However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Cubs fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Giants, with pros backing the unpopular road dog and triggering line movement in their favor (+110 to +100). The Giants have the better bats, hitting .248 with 315 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .226 with 298 runs scored. San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Assad has a 6.10 ERA in two June starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. The total has risen from 9.5 to 10 and is hinting at a further rise up to 10.5. The forecast calls for high 80s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead center at Wrigley Field. The over is is only receiving 24% of bets but a whopping 72% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split.
