Today a new week begins with a loaded 12-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:50 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 7.5)
The Mariners (45-35) just dropped two of three against the Marlins, losing Sunday’s series finale 6-4 as -150 road favorites. On the flip side, the Rays (38-40) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning 3-1 yesterday as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to righty Bryan Woo (3-1, 1.67 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Taj Bradley (2-4, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -115 road favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 home dog. The public is leaning toward the Mariners, who are laying short chalk and have a superior won-loss record. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets backing the Mariners we’ve actually seen this line flip toward the Rays -105 to -115. Essentially, Tampa Bay is receiving sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement. Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. The Rays are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .254. The Mariners are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting only .216. Bradley has given up just 2 earned runs in 13 innings pitched over his last two starts (both Rays wins). He has a 2.10 ERA at home compared to 8.16 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers (-175, 8)
The Rangers (37-40) just swept a three-game set against the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-0 as -160 home favorites. On the other hand, the Brewers (45-33) just dropped two of three against the Padres but avoided the sweep with a 6-2 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rangers turn to Michael Lorenzen (4-3, 3.00 ERA) and the Brewers rebuttal with fellow righty Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -155 home favorite and Texas a +140 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Brewers, steaming Milwaukee up from -155 to -175. The Brewers are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has the better offense, hitting .255 with 376 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .238 with 329 runs scored. Milwaukee has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. This is also a bit of a buy-low, sell-high value play on Milwaukee, who has dropped three of their last four games while the Rangers have won four straight. The Brewers are 26-15 (63%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite this season, the 6th-best chalk team in MLB. Milwaukee is 20-9 (69%) with a 17% ROI as a favorite against a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 17-21 on the road. The Brewers are 22-12 at home.
9:38 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 9)
The Athletics (29-51) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing 3-0 yesterday as +150 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Angels (30-46) just split a two-game series with the Dodgers, losing Saturday’s series finale 7-2 as +330 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics go with Luis Medina (1-2, 4.71 ERA) and the Angels tap fellow righty Griffin Canning (2-8, 5.02 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -125 home favorite and Oakland a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Angels laying short chalk at home, steaming Los Angeles up from -125 to -135. The Angels are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets, signaling public support as well as a sharp 10-cent steam move in their favor. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 160-109 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. The Angels also enjoy a rare “rest vs tired” schedule advantage, as Los Angeles was off on Sunday while the Athletics played the Twins. Favorites coming off a day off against a team who played the previous day are 350-235 (60%) since 2018. The Angels have the more potent offense, hitting .235 with 307 runs scored compared to Oakland hitting .221 with 288 runs scored. Pros have also leaned over, raising the total from 8.5 to 9. The over is receiving 46% of bets but 53% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for clear skies, high 70s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center at Angel Stadium.
