Today a new week begins with a 12-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 9)
The Mets (21-25) just lost two of three against the Marlins but avoided the sweep with a 7-3 win in Sunday’s series finale, cashing as -140 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Guardians (30-17) just swept the Twins, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-2 as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mets go with righty Tyler Megill (0-1, 2.25 ERA) and the Guardians tap fellow righty Ben Lively (2-2, 3.06 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Guardians laying short home chalk, steaming Cleveland up from -120 to -130. The Guardians are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, indicating lopsided “low bets, higher dollars” support from both sharps and casual bettors in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Home Interleague favorites off a win, like the Guardians here, are 35-21 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Guardians have the far better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 2.54 vs 3.27 for the Mets. Cleveland is 15-6 (71%) at home, the second best home record in MLB. Lively has a 1.46 ERA at home compared to 4.05 on the road. Megill is returning from the injured list and making his second start of the season. The Guardians are +59 in run differential. The Mets are -13. Cleveland is 19-8 (70%) as a favorite this season, the second best chalk team in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Brewers (27-19) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing Sunday’s series finale 9-4 as +120 road dogs. On the flip side, the Marlins (15-33) just took two of three against the Mets but failed to earn the sweep, losing the series finale 7-3 as +125 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Joe Ross (2-4, 4.61 ERA) and the Marlins counter with lefty Ryan Weathers (2-4, 3.81 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -125 road favorite and Miami a +115 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brew Crew laying a short chalk price, steaming Milwaukee up from -125 to -135. The Brewers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy “low bets, higher dollars” support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Brewers have a big edge at the plate, hitting .258 with 58 homers and 235 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .231 with 41 homers and only 184 runs scored. Teams with a winning record coming off a loss, the like Brewers here, are 91-49 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8.5 to 8. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites have gone 138-85 (62%) with a 5% ROI. The Brewers also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Milwaukee is 15-10 on the road. Miami is 8-18 at home. Ross has a 6.87 ERA at home but a 2.78 ERA on the road. Weathers has a 7.07 ERA at home compared to 2.52 on the road. The Brewers are +38 in run differential. The Marlins are -82.
7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-135, 8)
The Mariners (25-22) just lost two of three against the Orioles, dropping yesterday’s series finale 6-3 as +125 road dogs. Conversely, the Yankees (33-15) have won seven straight and just swept the White Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-2 as -320 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners start righty Logan Gilbert (3-2, 3.07 ERA) and the Yankees send out fellow righty Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Seattle a +115 road dog. Sharps are laying the modest chalk with the red-hot Bronx Bombers at home, steaming the Yankees up from -125 to -135. New York is receiving 88% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public as well as a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .256 with 68 homers and 233 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .228 with 51 homers and only 177 runs scored. Favorites with steam of 10-cents or more playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous year are 77-42 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Yankees are 16-6 (73%) at home, the best home record in MLB. The Mariners are 10-12 on the road. Stroman has a 2.65 ERA in three May starts, only allowing 5 earned runs over 17 innings pitched against the Tigers, Astros and Twins. Gilbert has a 5.30 ERA in three May starts, allowing 11 earned runs over 18.2 innings pitched against the Astros, Twins and Royals. The Yankees are 25-10 (71%) as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.
