Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins (-200, 8)
The Twins (38-32) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-2 as -230 home favorites and then winning again last night 6-5 in extra innings as -170 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Athletics (26-46) hand the ball to righty Joey Estes (2-2, 4.78 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty Bailey Ober (5-4, 5.13 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -180 home favorite and Oakland a +165 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and are riding the hot hand, steaming the Twins up from -180 to -200. Minnesota is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. The Twins have the far better offense, hitting .239 with 320 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .219 with only 257 runs scored. Saturday favorites -150 or more are 42-20 (68%) with a 6% ROI this season. Minnesota also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Quinn Wolcott, the home plate ump, is 57% to the home team historically. Oakland is 11-26 on the road. Minnesota is 20-14 at home.
2:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-180, 8)
The Cardinals (34-34) won last night’s series opener 3-0, cashing as +105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Cardinals tap righty Andre Pallante (2-2, 4.88 ERA) and the Cubs (33-37) rebuttal with lefty Shota Imanaga (6-1, 1.96 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -165 home favorite and the Cardinals a +150 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down on the Cubs to bounce back with a win at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -165 to -180. The Cubs are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 223-141 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Saturday favorites -150 or more off a loss are 16-7 (70%) with a 7% ROI this season. Pallante has a 6.75 ERA in two June starts, allowing 6 earned runs in just 8 innings pitched. He has a 5.40 ERA on the road compared to 4.00 at home. Imanaga has a 2.45 ERA in two June starts (both wins), allowing only 3 earned runs over 11 innings pitched. Chicago has gone 10-2 in Imanaga’s 12 starts this season. He has a 1.31 ERA at home compared to 2.60 on the road. The Cardinals are hitting .218 against lefties this season, 2nd worst in MLB.
4:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (-180, 8.5)
The Phillies (47-22) took last night’s Interleague series opener 5-3 in extra innings, cashing as +125 road dogs. In this late afternoon rematch, the Phillies go with righty Taijuan Walker (3-1, 5.40 ERA) and the Orioles (45-24) send out fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (7-2, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -165 home favorite and Philadelphia a +150 road dog. Sharps are banking on the Orioles to bounce back, steaming Baltimore up from -165 to -180. The Orioles are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 223-141 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record, like the Orioles here, are 62-34 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season. Walker has a 5.89 ERA on the road and has allowed 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched over his last three starts. Rodriguez has a 2.19 ERA in two June starts, allowing only three earned runs over 12.1 innings pitched. Rodriguez has a 2.12 ERA at home compared to 4.28 on the road. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 8-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center at Camden Yards. Interleague unders are 153-129 (54%) with a 5% ROI this season.
