Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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4:07 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-125, 7.5)
The Athletics (16-17) took Friday night’s Interleague series opener 3-1, taking care of business as -150 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Marlins (9-25) hand the ball to lefty Trevor Rogers (0-4, 4.31 ERA) and the Athletics counter with righty Paul Blackburn (2-1, 3.34 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -115 home favorite and Miami a +105 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the red-hot Athletics, who have won seven of their last eight games, steaming Oakland up from -115 to -125. The Athletics are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided support from both sharps and the betting public in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites are 47-31 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Athletics here, are 264-163 (62%) with a 3% ROI since the start of last season. Oakland also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Oakland has the far better bullpen (2.47 ERA, 2nd in MLB compared to 4.39 ERA for Miami). Pros hit the under as well, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 68% of bets but 88% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.
6:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-180, 7.5)
The Phillies (22-11) won last night’s series opener 4-3, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (15-18) start righty Keaton Winn (3-3, 3.18 ERA) and the Phillies turn to lefty Ranger Suarez (5-0, 1.32 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 home favorite and San Francisco a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -165 to -175. The Phillies are receiving 90% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Phillies have the better offense, hitting .253 with 40 homers and 153 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .238 with 29 homers and 124 runs scored. Saturday non-division favorites are 34-21 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season. The Phillies are 11-6 at home. The Giants are just 6-11 on the road. Philadelphia is +28 in run differential. San Francisco is -24. The Phillies are a perfect 6-0 in Suarez’s six starts this season. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 7. The under is receiving 61% of bets and 77% of dollars, a sharp bet split.
6:45 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Orioles (21-11) took last night’s Interleague series opener 3-0, cruising as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles go with lefty John Means, who is making his 2024 debut after going 1-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, the Reds (16-16) rebuttal with fellow southpaw Andrew Abbott (1-3, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -110 road favorite and Cincinnati a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Baltimore laying a cheap chalk price, driving the Orioles up from -110 to -115. Some shops are even flirting with a move to -120. Baltimore is receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, evidence of both sharp and public support. The Orioles have the better offense, hitting .250 with 49 homers and 167 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .214 with 32 homers and 150 runs scored. Road favorites are 100-66 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less 54-39 (58%) with an 8% ROI. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Orioles here, are 264-163 (62%) with a 3% ROI since the start of last season. The Orioles are 60-24 (71%) with an 18% ROI against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year since since the start of last season. Baltimore is hitting .277 vs lefties this season (4th best in MLB). The Reds are hitting .224 vs lefties (18th). Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9.5. The over is only receiving 31% of bets but 72% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. These are two of the top six “over” teams in MLB, with the Reds 17-13-1 to the over and the Orioles 16-12-3 to the over.
