Today the weekend wraps up with a 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-110, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Royals (13-8) took Friday night’s opener 9-4, cashing as +115 home dogs. Then the Orioles (13-7) bounced back with a 9-7 win on Saturday, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Baltimore starts lefty Cole Irvin (0-1, 6.75 ERA) and Kansas City counters with righty Seth Lugo (3-0, 1.05 ERA). This line opened with the Royals listed as a -120 home favorite and the Orioles a +110 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Orioles at a cheap dog price, dropping Baltimore from +110 to -105. Essentially, sharp Orioles money is moving this line toward a pick’em. Baltimore is receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split along with a notable steam move. The Orioles have the better bats (hitting .263 vs .241). Baltimore also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Baltimore is 45-35 (56%) as a dog with a 23% ROI since the start of last season, the best “dog” team in MLB.
2:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-125, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Tigers (11-10) won the opener 5-4, cashing as +130 road dogs. Then the Twins (7-12) rebounded with a 4-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Detroit hands the ball to righty Casey Mize (0-0, 4.11 ERA) and Minnesota sends out fellow righty Louie Varland (0-3, 8.36 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Minnesota as a slight -110 home favorite. The public is going with the Tigers, who are receiving 62% of moneyline bets. However, despite this lopsided betting, we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Minnesota (-110 to -125). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Twins, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead embracing the unpopular home favorite. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 76-59 (56%) with a 5% ROI this season. Minnesota also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
2:20 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-130, 8.5)
This is the fourth game of a four-game series. The Cubs (13-8) have taken two of the first three games, winning the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader 5-3 as -220 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins (5-17) tap righty Edward Cabrera (0-0, 1.50 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (0-2, 12.71 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on Chicago laying short chalk at home, steaming the Cubs up from -120 to -130. Chicago is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-sided support from both Pros and Joes. The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .248 and scoring 116 runs vs the Marlins hitting just .216 and scoring only 79 runs. Chicago also has the better bullpen (ERA 4.01 vs 5.54). Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 76-59 (56%) with a 5% ROI. The Cubs have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. Chicago is 7-2 at home. Miami is 3-6 on the road. The Cubs are +21 in run differential. The Marlins are -41, third worst in MLB behind the Rockies (-48) and White Sox (-65).
