Happy Father’s Day! If you get the chance, have a catch with Dad. Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (-135, 7)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Phillies (47-23) won the opener 5-3 in extra innings, cashing as +125 road dogs. Then the Orioles (46-24) bounced back with a 6-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -175 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies turn to righty Zack Wheeler (8-3, 2.16 ERA) and the Orioles send out fellow righty Corbin Burnes (7-2, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -120 home favorite and Philadelphia a +110 road dog. The public sees two good teams with their aces on the mound and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite the moneyline bets being split down the middle 50/50 we’ve seen Baltimore move from -120 to -135. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based on the 15-cent steam move toward Baltimore that pros have laid the short chalk with the Orioles at home. The Orioles have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Baltimore is 39-20 (66%) with a 13% ROI as a favorite this season, the 3rd best “chalk” team in MLB. Wheeler has a 2.83 ERA on the road compared to 1.71 on the road. Burnes has a 0.64 ERA in two June starts, allowing only one earned run in 14 innings pitched. He has a 1.70 ERA at home compared to 2.54 on the road. The Phillies are 30-11 (73%) against teams below .500 but just 11-8 (58%) against teams above .500. The Orioles are 17-9 (65%) against teams above .500.
1:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-130, 7) at New York Mets
The Mets (32-37) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -115 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-1 as -130 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres (37-37) hand the ball to righty Dylan Cease (6-5, 3.36 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow righty Tylor Megill (1-3, 3.51 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a short -110 road favorite and New York a +100 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Padres to avoid the sweep, steaming San Diego up from -110 to -135. The Padres are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. San Diego has the better bats, hitting .259 with 327 runs scored compared to New York hitting .241 with 302 runs scored. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 227-142 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Short road favorites -140 or less are 128-100 (56%) with a 4% ROI. The Padres also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. San Diego is 19-16 on the road. New York is 17-23 at home. Cease has a 3.00 ERA in two June starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. Megill has a 6.52 ERA in two June starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched.
2:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Reds (34-36) won the opener 6-5, cashing as +150 road dogs. Then the Brewers (41-29) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -130 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Reds start righty Frankie Montas (3-5, 4.55 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow righty Colin Rea (5-2, 3.31 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -125 home favorite and Cincinnati a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brewers laying modest chalk at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -125 to -135. The Brewers are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has the better offense, hitting .254 with 339 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .226 with 302 runs scored. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Brewers here, are 36-21 (63%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Reds are 1-6 in Montas’s last seven starts. Milwaukee has gone 9-4 in Rea’s 13 starts. Rea has a 0.82 ERA in two June starts, allowing only one earned run in 11 innings pitched. He has a 2.72 ERA at home compared to 3.93 on the road. Cincinnati is 16-17 on the road. Milwaukee is 21-12 at home.
