Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games.
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1:35 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox (-115, 10.5)
The Padres (46-41) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 9-2 as +135 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 11-1 as +120 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres hand the ball to righty Matt Waldron (5-6, 3.43 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow righty Josh Winckowski (1-1, 3.26 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and San Diego a +100 road dog. We’ve seen this line fall away from the Red Sox (-120 to -115) and toward the Padres (+100 to -105). Essentially, we are seeing sharp Padres money shift this game toward a pick’em. San Diego is receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support and also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Padres have the more high-powered offense, hitting .263 with 411 runs scored compared to the Red Sox hitting .252 with 377 runs scored. San Diego is 9-1 over their last ten games, hitting .303 with a 3.86 ERA. Boston is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .253 with a 5.06 ERA. The Padres are 22-19 on the road. The Red Sox are 19-23 at home. Waldron has a 1.95 ERA in five June starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 32.1 innings pitched. He has a 2.86 ERA on the road compared to 4.15 at home.
2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-110, 8)
The Reds (39-44) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series, winning 9-4 yesterday as +165 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Reds turn to righty Hunter Greene (5-3, 3.79 ERA) and the Cardinals (42-40) send out fellow righty Lance Lynn (3-3, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -110 road favorite and St. Louis a +100 home dog. The public is leaning toward riding the Reds as a cheap chalk favorite. However, despite 58% of moneyline bets taking Cincinnati we’ve seen the line fall away from the Reds (-110 to +100) and toward the Cardinals (+100 to -110). Some shops are even approaching Cardinals -115. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on the Cardinals, who are seeing the line move in their favor despite being the unpopular play. St. Louis is receiving 42% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of a Pro and Joe bet split. The Cardinals have buy-low value as a favorite off a loss playing an opponent off a win. The Reds are 19-21 on the road. The Cardinals are 23-18 at home. Greene has a 5.46 ERA in five June starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 28 innings pitched. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Lynn’s five June starts. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible dip down to 7.5. The under is only receiving 20% of bets but 33% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split.
