Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only 11-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-150, 9.5)
The Nationals (32-35) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-4 in extra innings as -105 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-5 as +105 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, the Nationals hand the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin (1-7, 6.15 ERA) and the Tigers (32-35) turn to righty Casey Mize (1-4, 4.73 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Some shops opened with Detroit listed as a modest -125 home favorite. Regardless of the opening price, sharp money has poured in on Detroit, steaming the Tigers up to a -150 home favorite. Detroit is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a sizable steam move in their favor. This is the ultimate buy-low value play on the Tigers, who have lost five of their last six games, while also a sell-high play on the Nationals, who have won five straight. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 217-137 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Fading Corbin has resulted in a 9-4 record (69%) with a 6% ROI this season and a 68-38 (64%) record with a 5% ROI since 2021. Emil Jimenez, the home plate ump, is 60% to the home team historically. Mize has a 3.58 ERA at home compared to 6.15 on the road.
2:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-160, 10.5) at Kansas City Royals
The Yankees (49-21) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 4-2 as -110 road favorites, winning the second game 10-1 as -130 road favorites and then winning again last night 11-5 as -165 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees start lefty Nestor Cortes (3-5, 3.68 ERA) and the Royals (39-30) rebuttal with righty Alec Marsh (5-3, 4.05 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -150 road favorite and Kansas City a +135 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on the Yankees to complete the sweep, steaming the Bronx Bombers up from-150 to -160. New York is receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Non-division road favorites off a win, like the Yankees here, are 83-58 (59%) with a 5% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their favor are 42-20 (68%) with a 14% ROI. The Yankees are 38-15 (72%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Marsh has an 8.10 ERA in two June starts, allowing 9 runs in 10 innings pitched against the Padres and Mariners.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks (-185, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Diamondbacks (32-36) won the opener 9-4, taking care of business as -155 home favorites. Then the Angels (26-41) bounced back with an 8-3 win yesterday, cashing as +135 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, Los Angeles taps righty Griffin Canning (2-6, 4.65 ERA) and Arizona counters with fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (2-5, 4.60 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -175 home favorite and Los Angeles a +160 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have gotten down hard on the Snakes, steaming Arizona up from -175 to -185. The Diamondbacks are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support. Arizona has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Diamondbacks here, are 217-137 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Arizona has the better offense, hitting .249 with 318 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .239 with only 275 runs scored. Pfaadt has a 3.77 ERA at home compared to 5.13 on the road. The Angels are 0-6 in Canning’s six road starts this season.
