Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only six games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:05 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-115, 9) at Baltimore Orioles
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Orioles (19-11) took the first two games, winning 2-0 as -130 home favorites and 4-2 as +105 home dogs. Then the Yankees (20-12) bounced back with a 2-0 win yesterday, cashing as +130 road dogs. In this early afternoon series finale, New York hands the ball to lefty Carlos Rodon (2-1, 2.48 ERA) and Baltimore sends out righty Kyle Bradish, who is making his 2024 debut after going 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA in 2023. This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -130 road favorite and the Orioles a +115 home dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Bronx Bombers. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets backing the Yankees, we’ve seen New York fall from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore, with pros grabbing the plus money with the unpopular home dog (+115 to +100). Essentially, smart Orioles money is driving this game down towards a pick’em. Baltimore has value as a divisional dog, with the built-in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. The Orioles also have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Baltimore is hitting .270 against lefties this season, 6th-best in MLB. The Orioles are 46-35 (57%) with a 25% ROI as a dog since the start of last season, the best “dog” team in MLB.
1:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9.5)
The Red Sox (18-13) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 4-0 as +115 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-2 as -160 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants (14-17) start lefty Kyle Harrison (2-1, 4.09 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with righty Josh Winckowski (1-1, 3.50 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Red Sox laying short chalk at home, driving Boston up from -110 to -115. Some shops are even approaching -120. The Red Sox are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-sided support from both sharps and the betting public. The Red Sox have the better bats (hitting .251 vs .239) and better bullpen (ERA 3.36 vs 5.51). Interleague favorites off a win are 41-26 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Boston is +41 in run differential. San Francisco is -25. The Red Sox are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .297 with a 2.45 ERA. The Giants are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .234 with a 3.34 ERA.
2:35 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers (-200, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Rangers (16-15) took the opener 7-1, cruising as -160 home favorites. Then the Nationals (15-15) clawed back with a 1-0 win yesterday, cashing as +175 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals start lefty Mitchell Parker (2-0, 1.69 ERA) and the Rangers go with righty Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -185 home favorite and Washington a +170 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Rangers, driving Texas up from -185 to -200. The Rangers are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 15-cent steam move. Texas has the better bats (hitting .248 vs .231). Favorites off a loss, like the Rangers here, are 120-80 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. The Rangers are 30-21 (59%) against lefties since the start of last season. Texas has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Rangers also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team as well. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8.
