Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-155, 9)
The Royals (74-58) swept yesterday’s series opening doubleheader, winning 4-3 as -125 road favorites and winning again 9-4 as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals tap righty Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.47 ERA) and the Guardians (75-57) rebuttal with fellow righty Gavin Williams (2-6, 5.13 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -145 home favorite and Kansas City a +125 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the modest chalk with Cleveland in a bounce back spot, steaming the Guardians up from -145 to -155. Cleveland is receiving 60% of moneyline bets, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Cleveland has fishy betting system value as a favorite off a loss playing an opponent off a win. The Guardians are also in a buy-low, sell-high spot as they are 3-8 over their last 11 games while the Royals are 9-3 over their last 12 games. Cleveland is 40-23 at home, the third best home team in MLB. The Guardians have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting an ERA of 2.77 (second best in MLB) compared to 4.39 for the Royals (24th).
8:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 7.5)
The Giants (66-66) just dropped two of three against the Mariners, losing Sunday’s series finale 4-3 as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Brewers (75-55) just took two of three against the Athletics but failed to earn the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 4-3 as -145 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Giants start righty Logan Webb (11-8, 3.13 ERA) and the Brewers counter with fellow righty Tobias Myers (6-5, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 road favorite and Milwaukee a -105 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen the line move away from the Giants (-115 to -105) and toward the Brewers (-105 to -115). This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Milwaukee, with pros backing the home team at a coin-flip price. The Brewers are receiving 53% of moneyline bets but 84% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy indicating an undecided public but also heavy smart money. Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .253 with 626 runs scored compared to San Francisco hitting .242 with 568 runs scored. The Giants are 28-38 on the road. The Brewers are 38-24 at home. Webb has a 4.11 ERA on the road compared to 2.26 at home and a 3.48 ERA at night compared to 2.57 in the day. Myers has a 2.05 ERA in four August starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. He has a 2.28 ERA at night compared to 3.68 in the day.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (-155, 6.5)
The Mariners (67-65) won last night’s series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Rays (65-66) turn to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1-2, 4.50 ERA) and the Mariners send out righty Logan Gilbert (7-10, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +120 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the modest chalk with Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -140 to -155. Seattle is receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from Pros and Joes in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Mariners have the more explosive offense, hitting 146 homers and scoring 521 runs compared to the Rays hitting 121 homers and scoring 503 runs. Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (6.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Mariners also have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win. The Mariners are 40-27 at home. The Rays are 31-32 on the road. Springs has a 7.56 ERA on the road compared to 2.63 at home. Gilbert has a 2.53 ERA at home compared to 3.81 on the road.
