Today we have a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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8:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (-135, 7.5)
The Rangers (48-52) took last night’s series opener 4-3, walking off in the 10th-inning as -175 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the White Sox (27-75) hand the ball to lefty Garrett Crochet (6-6, 3.02 ERA) and the Rangers counter with righty Jon Gray (4-4, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -120 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Rangers laying short chalk at home, steaming Texas up from -120 to -135. Texas is receiving 75% of moneyline bets, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year are 172-107 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. Fading the White Sox has resulted in a 75-27 (74%) record with a 16% ROI. The Rangers have the better bats, hitting .238 with 105 homers and 426 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .219 with 88 homers and 319 runs scored. The White Sox are 10-41 on the road, by far the worst road record in MLB. The Rangers are 26-23 at home. Texas has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Crochet has a 4.17 ERA on the road compared to 2.31 at home. Gray has a 3.78 ERA at home compared to 4.19 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-110, 8.5) at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs (49-53) took last night’s series opener 3-1, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (57-43) tap righty Colin Rea (9-3, 3.77 ERA) and the Cubs rebuttal with fellow righty Jameson Taillon (7-4, 3.10 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Milwaukee a +110 road dog. Wiseguys have scooped up the plus money with Milwaukee, driving the Brewers all the way from +110 to -110. Essentially we are seeing smart money hit the Brewers, triggering a “dog to pick’em” line move in their favor. Some books are even hopping the fence to show Milwaukee as a slight favorite. The Brewers are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split combined with a notable steam move in their favor. Milwaukee has the better offense, hitting .254 with 483 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .233 with 422 runs scored. If this line continues to rise in favor of Milwaukee, they will match several “favorite” betting systems, including favorites off a loss vs an opponent off a win (331-216, 61%, 3% ROI this season) and sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less (149-122, 55%, 3% ROI). The Brewers are 28-16 (64%) with an 8% ROI against teams with a sub .500 record.
9:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-135, 9) at Oakland Athletics
The Athletics (40-62) stole last night’s series opener 4-0, cashing as +135 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (52-48) start righty Jake Bloss (0-0, 4.70 ERA) and the Athletics turn to fellow righty Osvaldo Bido (1-1, 3.44 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog. Sharps are banking on Houston to bounce back with a win, steaming the Astros up from -125 to -135. Houston is receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, signaling “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 331-216 (61%) with a 3% ROI this season. The Astros have the edge at the plate, hitting .261 with 468 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .230 with 420 runs scored. Houston is 6-2 against Oakland this season. Both teams are 6-4 over their last ten games, but Houston’s pitching staff has been far better over that time span (2.73 ERA vs 4.97 ERA). The Astros are hitting .261 against righties this season, 2nd-best in MLB. The Athletics are hitting .228 against righties, ranking 26th.
