Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-170, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Red Sox (44-39) just dropped two of three against the Padres but avoided the sweep with a 4-1 win in Sunday’s series finale, cashing as -110 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (30-54) just split a four-game series against the Phillies but lost Sunday’s series finale 7-6 as +220 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox start righty Kutter Crawford (3-7, 3.59 ERA) and the Marlins send out fellow righty Valente Bellozo (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Bellozo just made his MLB debut six days ago, allowing no runs in 5 innings pitched in a 5-1 loss against the Royals. This line opened with Boston listed as a -155 road favorite and Miami a +140 home dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the chalk and have laid the wood with the Red Sox, steaming Boston up from -155 to -170. The Red Sox are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 502-312 (62%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Non-division road favorites off a win are 97-74 (57%) with a 1% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 48-29 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Boston has the better bats, hitting .252 with 94 homers and 381 runs scored compared to Miami hitting .231 with only 66 homers and 293 runs scored. The Red Sox are 24-16 on the road. The Marlins are 16-27 at home. Boston also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Crawford has a 2.88 ERA on the road compared to 4.15 at home.
6:45 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-145, 9) at Washington Nationals
The Mets (41-41) won Monday night’s series opener 9-7, hanging on in extra innings as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Mets go with lefty Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.89 ERA) and the Nationals (39-45) send out fellow southpaw DJ Herz (1-2, 5.48 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Mets laying a short chalk price, steaming New York up from -125 to -145. The Mets are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 48-29 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. New York has the better offense, hitting .250 with 104 homers and 402 runs scored compared to Washington hitting .236 with only 68 homers and 348 runs scored. The Mets are 20-16 on the road. The Nationals are 17-20 at home. Manaea has been solid in his last three starts, allowing only four earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has a 3.16 ERA on the road compared to 4.40 at home. The Mets are hitting .265 against lefties (6th best in MLB). The Nationals are hitting .232 against lefties (25th). New York is 6-4 over their last ten games hitting .270 with a 4.65 ERA. Washington is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .258 with a 5.32 ERA. The Mets are a perfect 4-0 against the Nationals this season.
7:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-125, 7.5)
The Tigers (38-46) just dropped three of four against the Angels but avoided the sweep with a 7-6 win in Sunday’s series finale, cashing as +100 road dogs. On the flip side, the Twins (47-37) just took two of three against the Mariners, winning 5-3 on Sunday as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers hand the ball to lefty Tarik Skubal (9-3, 2.32 ERA) and the Twins turn to righty Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.41 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 road favorite and Minnesota a +100 home dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Twins, flipping Minnesota all the way to a -125 home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Twins. Minnesota is receiving 58% of moneyline bets, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a line flip. The Twins have the superior offense, hitting .248 with 99 homers and 404 runs scored compared to the Tigers hitting .228 with only 76 homers and 341 runs scored. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 502-312 (62%) with a 2% ROI since 2020. Minnesota has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Twins are hitting .284 against lefties this season, the best in MLB. Minnesota is 23-16 at home. Detroit is 19-24 on the road. The Twins are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .276 with a 3.23 ERA. The Tigers are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .206 with a 4.39 ERA. Minnesota is 38-20 (66%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite, the 4th-best chalk team in MLB.
