Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:35 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-130, 8) at Baltimore Orioles
The Braves (35-28) just got swept by the Nationals, losing Sunday’s series finale 8-5 as -230 road favorites. On the other hand, the Orioles (43-22) just swept a four-game series against the Rays, winning 5-2 last night as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves start lefty Max Fried (6-2, 2.93 ERA) and the Orioles send out righty Albert Suarez (2-0, 1.83 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 road favorite and Baltimore a +120 home dog. Respected money has come down on the Orioles getting plus money, dropping Baltimore from +120 to +115. Some shops are even falling toward Orioles +110. In other words, all movement has been toward Baltimore. The Orioles are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split representing both public and sharp support. Baltimore will lean in their bats, hitting .250 with 104 homers and 336 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .244 with 65 homers and 279 runs scored. The Orioles are 50-38 (57%) with a 24% ROI as a dog since the start of last season, the best “dog” team in MLB. Baltimore is 21-12 at home. Atlanta is 16-16 on the road. The Orioles are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .274 with a 2.35 ERA. The Braves are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .209 with a 4.81 ERA.
7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at New York Mets (-145, 7.5)
The Marlins (22-43) have lost six of their last seven games and just dropped two of three against the Guardians, losing Sunday’s series finale 6-3 as +105 home dogs. On the flip side, the Mets (28-36) have won six of their last nine games and just split a two-game series with the Phillies in London, winning Sunday’s finale 6-5 as +120 neutral site dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins hand the ball to lefty Jesus Luzardo (2-5, 5.30 ERA) and the Mets counter with righty Tylor Megill (1-2, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +120 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Mets at home, steaming New York up from -135 to -145. The Mets are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided one-way support from both Pros and Joes. New York has the better offense, hitting .242 with 69 homers and 280 runs scored compared to Miami hitting .234 with 52 homers and 233 runs scored. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 490-299 (62%) with a 3% ROI since the start of the 2020 season. The Mets also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
9:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres (-160, 8)
The Padres (35-35) took last night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, cruising as -230 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (26-42) tap lefty JP Sears (4-5, 3.93 ERA) and the Padres send out righty Randy Vasquez (1-3, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -150 home favorite and the Athletics a +135 road dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the chalk with San Diego at home, driving the Padres up from -150 to -160. San Diego is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy support from both sharps and the betting public. The Padres have a big edge at the plate, hitting .262 with 316 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .219 with only 243 runs scored. Interleague home favorites off a win, like the Padres here, are 51-30 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. San Diego also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Sears has a 4.43 ERA on the road compared to 3.31 at home. Vasquez has given up three earned runs or less in three straight starts. Oakland is 11-22 on the road, the 4th-worst “road” team in MLB. San Diego is +24 in run differential. Oakland is -80.
