Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-140, 9)
The Orioles (47-24) just took two of three against the Phillies, winning Sunday’s series finale 8-3 as -135 home favorites. On the flip side, the Yankees (50-24) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, losing 9-3 on Sunday Night Baseball as -140 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Albert Suarez (3-0, 1.61 ERA) and the Yankees turn to lefty Nestor Cortes (3-5, 3.59 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -155 home favorite and Baltimore a +130 road dog. The public is laying the chalk with the Bronx Bombers, who have the best record in MLB. However, despite receiving 62% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Yankees fall from -155 to -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Orioles, with pros backing the unpopular plus money dog and triggering line movement in Baltimore’s favor (+130 to +120). Baltimore is only receiving 38% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Orioles have value as a divisional dog and a dog in a high total game, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Baltimore is 7-4 (64%) with a 32% ROI as a dog this season and 51-38 (57%) with a 25% ROI as a dog since the start of last season, the best dog team in MLB. The Orioles are hitting .261 against lefties this season, 8th-best in baseball. The Orioles are 3-1 against New York. Suarez has a 1.74 ERA in two June starts, giving up just 2 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched. Cortes has a 4.86 ERA in three June starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched.
7:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-120, 7.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
The Red Sox (38-35) took last night’s series opener 7-3, cashing a +105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox go with righty Tanner Houck (7-5, 2.08 ERA) and the Blue Jays (35-37) counter with fellow righty Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.56 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on Boston at a coin-flip price, steaming the Red Sox up from -110 to -120. Boston is receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .253 with 78 homers and 339 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .233 with 60 homers and 281 runs scored. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 105-83 (56%) with a 4% ROI this season. Boston also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Boston is 5-0 in Houck’s last five starts. He has a 1.66 ERA on the road compared to 2.38 at home. Bassitt has a 4.12 ERA at home compared to 3.00 on the road. The Blue Jays are just 7-18 (28%) as a dog this season, the 4th-worst dog team in MLB. Boston also has the better bullpen (ERA 3.48 vs 4.67).
9:38 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels (29-43) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 5-3, cashing as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (42-30) start righty Tobias Myers (3-2, 3.76 ERA) and the Angels tap fellow righty Griffin Canning (2-7, 4.76 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 road favorite and Los Angeles a +115 home dog. Sharps have sided with the Brewers to get back on track laying a modest chalk price, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -140. The Brewers are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 232-146 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites with a winning record off a loss playing a team below .500 are 71-37 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Milwaukee is 24-14 (63%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite, the 7th-best chalk team in MLB. The Brewers also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .253 with 347 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .239 with 299 runs scored. Myers has a 0.64 ERA in two June starts, allowing only one earned run in 14 innings pitched. He has a 2.53 ERA on the road compared to 5.12 at home. The Angels are 0-3 in Canning’s three June starts. The Brewers are 20-18 on the road. The Angels are 12-23 at home.
