Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 7.5)
The Pirates (17-19) took Monday night’s Interleague series opener 4-1, cashing as -170 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Angels (12-23) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-5, 5.91 ERA) and the Pirates counter with righty Quinn Priester (0-2, 3.31 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 home favorite and Los Angeles a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Pirates laying short chalk at home, steaming Pittsburgh up from -120 to -130. The Pirates are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Interleague favorites off a win, like the Pirates here, are 46-29 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Pittsburgh has the far better bullpen (ERA 3.76 vs 5.17). The Pirates have a team ERA of 2.83 over their last ten games compared to 6.00 for the Angels. Pittsburgh has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Rob Drake, the home plate ump, is 55% to the home team, historically.
6:45 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-215, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Orioles (23-11) have won six of their last seven games and just swept the Reds, winning Sunday’s series finale 11-1 as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Nationals (17-17) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning 11-8 on Sunday as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Orioles start righty Corbin Burnes (3-1, 2.61 ERA) and the Nationals turn to fellow righty Trevor Williams (3-0, 2.27 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -190 road favorite and Washington a +175 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the heavy chalk and have gotten down hard on Baltimore, steaming the Orioles up from -190 to -215. Baltimore is receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling lopsided action from both Pros and Joes. Baltimore has the better bats, hitting .251 with 54 homers and 180 runs scored compared to Washington hitting .233 with 31 homers and 142 runs scored. Road favorites are 105-71 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 46-29 (61%) with a 5% ROI. When both teams had the previous day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 464-282 (61%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. The Orioles have feasted on teams who missed the playoffs the previous season, going 60-24 (71%) with an 18% ROI since 2023. Baltimore is 11-4 on the road. Washington is 6-9 at home.
7:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (-160, 9)
The Padres (19-19) won last night’s series opener 6-3, cruising as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres go with righty Randy Vazquez (0-1, 5.87 ERA) and the Cubs (21-15) start lefty Shota Imanaga (5-0, 0.78 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -150 home favorite and San Diego a +130 road dog. Sharps have rushed to the book to lay the chalk with Chicago, steaming the Cubs up from -150 to -160. Chicago is receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss who have a winning record, like the Cubs here, are 64-35 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season. Chicago also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Cubs are a perfect 6-0 when Imanaga starts. He has only given up three earned runs over 27.2 innings pitched. Imanaga is now the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year at +300. The Padres are only hitting .201 against lefties this season, 4th-worst in MLB.
